Discreet until the rebel offensive in Syria, the links between Turkey and the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now in power in Damascus, are coming to light, with each taking advantage of the other, analysts say.
“No one knows them as well as we do,” boasted the head of Turkish diplomacy, Hakan Fidan, affirming that Ankara had convinced Russia and Iran not to stop the offensive which led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
However, the victory of the Syrian rebels led by the HTS group is “not a takeover” of Syria by Turkey, Mr. Fidan assured Wednesday on Al Jazeera, rejecting an assertion by American President-elect Donald Trump.
“HTS is not a Turkish puppet, unlike other Syrian rebel factions, but the group has long had close ties with the Turks and needs Turkish support,” summarizes Aron Lund, from the center of reflection Century International.
In an interview published Wednesday by the pro-government Turkish daily Yeni Safak, the head of HTS and the new Syrian authorities, Abou Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmad al-Chareh, affirmed that his government will maintain a “strategic relationship” with Ankara.
“Stabilize Syria”
Symbol of this new proximity between Turkey and Syria, which have long remained enemies, the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, skillfully staged his meeting in Damascus with Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, four days only after the fall of Assad.
“The new Syrian leaders are very concerned about building legitimacy and contacts with foreign countries,” notes Aron Lund.
“They don’t really have the diplomatic contacts or the experience to plead their case internationally, so they benefit a lot from Ankara’s help,” he emphasizes.
Turkey, which said it was “ready” to provide military aid to the new Syrian authorities, called on the international community on Wednesday to remove the HTS group from the list of terrorist organizations, which Ankara should do shortly, let hear the head of Turkish diplomacy.
Visiting Cairo on Thursday, where he is to be received by his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, Turkish President Erdogan could try to convince Egypt, an important regional player, to make contact with the new power in Damascus, the press suggests. Turkish.
“If Ankara manages to help stabilize Syria, (…) Syria will become an ally of Turkey,” underlines Soner Cagaptay, of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, for whom Ankara already has “more influence in Damascus that she has never had one since 1920″.
“Hit the Kurds”
In exchange, will Turkey be able to count on the power in Damascus to help it get rid of Kurdish fighters from northern Syria, whom it perceives as a threat?
“The new Syrian government wants it as much as we do,” said Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler.
The military leader of the HTS group told AFP on Tuesday that the authority of the new Syrian power would also be exercised over the Kurdish areas of the northeast, controlled by a semi-autonomous administration.
“The Turks would like to push HTS to attack the Kurds, but HTS does not want to get involved,” said a Syria specialist at a Western diplomatic representation in Turkey, on condition of anonymity.
For this source, Ankara’s role in the offensive in Syria has been “overestimated”, but Turkey now has “real economic leverage” thanks to its border of more than 900 km with Syria.
For their part, the West wants to prevent Turkey from establishing itself as the essential ally of Damascus.
Tuesday in Ankara, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, judged that the European Union must “intensify” its links with the Syrian government.
“Turkey has become the most influential foreign actor in Syria, but the United States retains significant influence on the international legitimacy of the new Syrian government and on the financing of the country’s reconstruction,” underlines Ömer Özkizilcik, associate researcher at the Atlantic Council in Ankara.
The evolution of the situation will therefore also depend on Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, but has already said he is convinced that “Turkey holds the keys to Syria.”
With AFP
