By appointing François Bayrou as Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron chose to place at the head of government the boss of a small party – the MoDem – long disadvantaged by the voting method of the legislative elections – single-member majority with two rounds. Throughout his career, the mayor of Pau staunchly defended the establishment of proportional representation. Last March, he still judged “this question (as) vital for the future of French democracy”.
For its defenders, this method of election would allow better representation of the smallest political forces, and“ensure a better feeling of representativeness for citizens, based on a greater match between the vote and the composition of the Assembly”describes Benjamin Morel, constitutionalist, while recalling that opinion surveys systematically show a preference of the French for this voting method.
So much so that in almost every presidential campaign, candidates, even from major parties, promoted it. François Hollande in 2012, joined by Nicolas Sarkozy in the process, Emmanuel Macron, already in 2017, then again in 2024. And yet, this has never been done – since 1986. But today, he is the ambassador chief of this system which is at the head of the government. So can things change?
Positions on proportional forms have evolved
When the question arises, we must first know what type of proportional we are talking about. Integral, measured, with a threshold of 5% or 12%, departmental…? “There are 50 forms of proportional”recalls Benjamin Morel.
François Bayrou himself has changed his scope over the years. In 2007, he advocated the election of half of the deputies in this way. Five years later, only a quarter were affected. Then the position of his party oscillated between fixing a threshold at 5% of the votes and a departmental application, until recently confining itself to the vague contours of“a significant dose”.
The RN, for its part, now pleads for a proportional to “majority bonus”. Which would mean, according to the conception of its leader, that the winner of the election would automatically win a third of the seats, while the rest of the Assembly would be shared in proportion to the scores achieved. A few years ago, Marine Le Pen campaigned for full proportional representation, arguing that she was not sufficiently represented. Some might see this as a fortuitous coincidence with the progress of the party’s electoral results.
A debate subject to the stability of the new Prime Minister
To make such a change, François Bayrou called for a referendum on the subject in 2021. Not necessary from a legal point of view, a simple law can change our voting method. A project or a proposed law could also find itself at the heart of political negotiations and the negotiation of the famous “non-censorship agreement” with the Socialist Party (PS).
Because last July, Boris Vallaud, leader of the socialist deputies, seemed favorable to this change. “It’s one of the things we can put on the table”he assured on Franceinfo. But not all the executives of the fist and rose party display the same enthusiasm. In 2019, Olivier Faure, Socialist First Secretary, was concerned that with this voting method: “minority groups would make the law […] an extremely dangerous game, because it is sometimes also undemocratic. »
On the right too, the positions could be questioned. Member of a party historically opposed to the disappearance of the two-round majority vote, Michel Barnier, then become Prime Minister, announced last November that he had entrusted the political scientist Pascal Perrineau with a ” work ” on the subject.
A solution to the political deadlock?
With the legislative elections, the tide seemed to turn. Many saw it as a way to resolve the problem of political blockage linked to the tripartition, by promoting a certain culture of compromise, as among our Italian neighbors.
Thomas Ehrhard, lecturer in political science at Paris-II-Panthéon-Assas, nevertheless affirms that a paradigm shift “wouldn’t solve this problem”. For what ? Because “proportional is not a method of government, but a method of distributing the number of votes in number of seats. Neither more nor less ». In short, it would no more allow than the majority vote to bring about a political majority in the current context, the compromise “resulting only from power struggles”.
And ironically: if the debate on this change has resurfaced due to political blockage, it is this same context which could prevent it from taking place. “There is an appearance of convergence, but in the modalities, they do not agree, insists the researcher. There have already been more favorable political and institutional contexts, with a majority, like in 2017, and that has not been done.”
This, while “the country presents other emergencies, such as reducing the debt and voting on a Budget”he continues. A very tight schedule, certainly, but also subject to the choices of the imperatives of the new executive. And in this area, from his fourth day in Matignon, the new Prime Minister has proven that he is capable of shaking up commonly accepted priorities.
