The scenario is becoming clearer for the start of the end-of-year holidays. Wintery but calm weather is expected for New Year’s Eve and Christmas Day, Tuesday evening 24 and Wednesday 25 December.
Two hypotheses were in dispute until recently: that of humid and cool weather or that of a less rainy sky with seasonal temperatures, or even a little higher. It is this second possibility, envisaged last weekend by the American meteorological model GFS, which ultimately holds the upper hand.
Atmospheric pressure is expected to be high on December 25, which suggests an anticyclonic situation, as shown in the infographic below. But as is often the case since the beginning of autumn, anticyclone does not necessarily mean clear skies. Due to the humidity present on the ground due to bad weather and the weakness of the sun, lower in the sky than in summer, the clouds and fog have difficulty dispersing. They can even stay there for several days in a row.
At this time, however, a forecast needs to be refined; reliability is therefore not yet 100%. As things currently stand, the sky on Tuesday, December 24 should be cloudier than that of Christmas Day, and even partly rainy. Several weather models, whether GFS, the German Icon or the European ECMWF for example, also go in this direction.
The Extrême Météo site envisages an “anticyclonic blockage in France” from December 25. He is counting on “calm” but “very gray” weather except in the southernmost regions. The center-east of the country could also see the sun break through the gray.
Seasonal temperatures, or even a little more
Temperatures would be relatively “mild” for the season. It would be around ten degrees in a large western half and “between 7°C and 10°C during the day in a small eastern half”. Such levels would be seasonal, or even a little higher by around 2°C to 3°C than seasonal norms.
Until the end of the month, the first trend is towards maintaining anticyclonic conditions with “good weather in the South and plenty of sunshine as well as great mildness in the mountains”. Occasionally the temperature could decrease. Beyond that, and for the start of 2025, disrupted weather could occur.
