London (awp/afp) – The dollar showed a modest rise on Wednesday, with analysts anticipating a new rate reduction from the American Federal Reserve (Fed) which could precede a period of pause in its cycle of monetary easing, in the face of stubborn inflation.
Around 10:15 a.m. GMT (11:15 a.m. in Paris), the American currency is almost stable against the euro (-0.01%), at 1.0493 dollars, and gains 0.12% against the pound, at 1.2694 dollars.
Almost unanimously, analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday, which would make it the third cut of the year.
But “the emphasis is placed on its prospects for the following year, in particular in light of the initiatives proposed by Donald Trump”, such as the increase in customs tariffs, “which could potentially reinforce inflation”, suggests Patrick Munnelly , analyst at Tickmill.
Wednesday could thus mark the last rate cut before a pause, because the American economy remains efficient and inflation has picked up over the last two months, after having followed an encouraging trajectory towards the objective of 2% set by the Fed.
The CPI consumer price index rebounded in November to 2.7%. The PCE inflation index, which the Fed wants to reduce to 2%, will be published on Friday.
“The crucial question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause from the January meeting,” adds Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI AM, which could benefit the dollar.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) must make their decisions on Thursday: analysts expect the two central banks to leave their respective key rates unchanged.
Boosted in November by the price of fuel and clothing, British inflation continued a rise that began the previous month, to 2.6% over one year, an increase in line with economists’ expectations, according to official data published on Wednesday.
“Underlying inflation and inflation in the services sector, two indicators closely monitored by the Bank of England as measures of underlying price pressure, remain high,” notes Charlie Cornes of Cebr .
For the analyst, “if we add to this the high wage growth figures” published on Tuesday, “everything suggests that the BoE will not lower its interest rates on Thursday.”
Finally, bitcoin falls again, after reaching a new historic high at $108,315.51 on Tuesday, driven among other factors by the prospect of pro-crypto policies under the new American administration.
Cours de mercredi Cours de mardi 10h15 GMT 22h00 GMT EUR/USD 1,0493 1,0491 EUR/JPY 161,22 161,00 EUR/CHF 0,9377 0,9366 EUR/GBP 0,8265 0,8254 USD/JPY 153,65 153,46 USD/CHF 0,8937 0,8927 GBP/USD 1,2694 1,2710
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