Is it time for Ukraine to enlist the country’s young adults? The question of lowering the age of mobilization to 18 has returned to the forefront in recent weeks, notably at the initiative of Washington. Such a decision “cannot be dictated by the statements of the White House or anyone else”however dismissed Olga Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister, Monday December 16. This age had already been lowered from 27 to 25 years old last April, after promulgation of a law by President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it is possible for young people aged 18 to 25 to serve in the army, but only if they volunteer.
In early December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the start of the invasion. He added that 370,000 others were wounded, half of whom returned to fight. Ukraine is therefore forced to find new recruits to renew its workforce, while the Russian army has taken the initiative in several sectors of Donbass. “The latest quantified objectives aimed at the rapid recruitment of 160,000 combatants, mobilized or recruited under contract”specifies researcher Anna Colin Lebedev, specialist in Ukrainian and Russian societies.
“The truth is that Ukraine is currently not mobilizing and training enough soldiers to replace battlefield losses and sustain itself in the face of growing Russian forces.”declared a senior official quoted by the Associated Press agency at the end of November. The latter mentioned the advantage, for the Ukrainian army, of setting the recruitment threshold at 18 years old. “Ukraine must make difficult, but necessary, decisions regarding continued mobilization”commented Antony Blinken, the head of American diplomacy.
“I think the United States is looking for a justification not to provide additional weapons”believes Anna Colin Lebedev. “Because even if the mobilization of 18-25 year olds was decreed, this would not quantitatively solve the recruitment problems of the Ukrainian army.” The researcher emphasizes the country’s age pyramid, unbalanced, marked by a “gap for the 20 to 30 year old generation”. According to some military experts, she continues, “only 100,000 men in this age category could really be mobilized”if we remove those concerned by university, family or health criteria. Very little, compared “to the pool that can already be mobilized across all age categories and society, estimated at around 4.5 million people”.
“The political and symbolic cost is enormous, for relatively little effect, and a sacrificed generation is questionable, including from a military point of view.”
Anna Colin Lebedev, researcherat franceinfo
kyiv, at this stage, categorically refuses to consider this hypothesis. “There is a lot of talk in the media about lowering the conscription age for Ukrainians to go to the front”reacted Volodymyr Zelensky, in a message posted on social networks. “We must focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel to use this equipment. We must not compensate for the lack of equipment and training with young soldiers.”
The two issues are closely linked, argues Anna Colin Lebedev, because “arms supplies impact mobilization. The Ukrainians are aware of not having enough weapons and ammunition on the front, which partly explains the recruitment difficulties.” The American request, moreover, suggests that kyiv is not making enough efforts to increase its contingents. But “the army has qualitatively modified its recruitment methods, by introducing incentives for signing contracts, rather than simply increasing mobilization”. According to kyiv, a million people now wear uniforms in this country which has 38 million inhabitants, compared to 44 million before the war.
The debate, despite everything, remains lively within the army itself. In the fall, several officers publicly called for a lowering of the legal age for mobilization. Yuri Fedorenko, commander of an attack drone battalion, said he was in favor of enlisting all citizens aged at least 18, men and women, to undergo military training. The front line, he added, should however be reserved for those over 23. The officer himself recognized the unpopular nature of such a proposal, adding that he expected to be the target of a “wave of hatred” on social networks.
“We don’t have enough people, we don’t have enough people this young”added at the same time Roman Kostenko, colonel and secretary of the parliamentary defense committee, advocating a lowering of the age to 20 years. “I am against the mobilization of 18 year olds”declared on the contrary Egor Firsov, chief sergeant of an assault company. “We have enough people: athletes, police officers, other categories of the population who could replenish the armed forces.” He cited the example of “strong guy” seen in kyiv in packed gymnasiums, while he was on leave.
The latter position is more in line with common opinion. “There is today a great consensus on this question, if we exclude the declarations of certain military personnel”insists Anna Colin Lebedev. Social acceptance of mobilization is indeed fragile. “This, as an expression of a civic duty, must respect a principle of justice. This point is considered central in Ukrainian society.”continues Anna Colin Lebedev. “Ukrainians demand that all social categories do their duty with regard to military service, and that they be treated with dignity and respect.”
“The Ukrainians are asking to be used where they can be useful, and not as cannon fodder.”
Anna Colin Lebedev, researcherat franceinfo
The Ukrainian army, since 2014, has been on a professionalization dynamic, favoring soldiers under contract. In February 2022, general mobilization was immediately introduced, when the country was invaded. It has since been extended every three months by a vote of Parliament. “The average age of Ukrainian fightersspecifies the researcher, is around 40 and 45 years old according to various estimates, compared to 35 and 40 years old in the Russian army.”
The authorities also cite a demographic argument, in a country marked by the aging of the population. “Their speech is to say that 18-25 year olds represent the future of the country”and that it is therefore out of the question to sacrifice this generation. Gold “what the American government is asking is to recruit people, not to train the Ukrainian army of tomorrow, but to send them directly to the front line”summarizes the researcher. “This request is deemed illegitimate.”
