A major breakthrough has just been made in normalization negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, according to information obtained by the daily Haaretz. This diplomatic breakthrough could also pave the way for an agreement on the release of hostages held by Hamas and an end to the conflict in Gaza.
At the heart of this progress is a subtle compromise on the Palestinian question. Saudi Arabia, which initially demanded explicit recognition of a Palestinian state by Israel, would now accept a vaguer commitment regarding “a path toward the creation of a Palestinian state.” This formulation would allow Riyadh to maintain its support for the Palestinian cause while providing Netanyahu with political room to maneuver with his base.
The negotiations, carried out with the greatest discretion by Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on behalf of Netanyahu, benefit from American mediation. Notably, Israel is coordinating these discussions with both the Biden administration and President-elect Trump, the latter of whom is likely to offer Saudi Arabia a US defense pact and access to sophisticated weapons systems . The envisaged agreement would be rolled out in two phases. The first provides for the release of hostages (female soldiers, female civilians, sick people and people over 50) against Palestinian prisoners, including people convicted of murder. This phase would be accompanied by a pause in the fighting in Gaza and a gradual Israeli withdrawal. The second phase would see the signing of the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The reconstruction of Gaza is a key element of the agreement. Riyadh, alongside a coalition including the Palestinian Authority, would lead reconstruction efforts while ensuring Israel’s security along its southern border. This Saudi involvement responds to both the kingdom’s desire to help the population of Gaza and Israel’s interest in seeing moderate Arab states participate in reconstruction.
However, political obstacles remain in Israel. The Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Force) party has already announced that it no longer considers itself bound by coalition discipline due to these “reckless negotiations.” The Religious Zionism party also opposes any deal involving the release of “terrorists.”
This diplomatic breakthrough, if successful, could mark a historic turning point in Israeli-Arab relations, while offering a way out of the current conflict in Gaza. However, the fragility of the Israeli government coalition and the complexity of regional issues make the outcome of these negotiations still uncertain.
