Key information
- By 2050, eight million properties in England could face the risk of flooding due to climate change.
- Advances in flood defense could ease this figure, but currently 6.3 million properties are classified as being at risk of flooding.
- The number of properties at risk of surface flooding is expected to increase to around 6.1 million by mid-century.
- Climate change could increase the risk of flooding from rivers and the sea, with sea level rise increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding.
- Britain’s coastline is already experiencing rapid erosion, with an estimated 20,000 properties at risk of being lost to the sea by 2100.
By 2050, it is estimated that eight million properties in England – a quarter of all properties – could face the risk of flooding due to the intensifying effects of climate change. The Environment Agency (EA) issued the warning in its first assessment of the influence of global warming on flood risks. Heavier rainfall and rising sea levels are the main factors contributing to the worsening of this threat.
Although the number of properties at risk could potentially increase if construction continues in flood plains, advances in flood defense could mitigate this figure. Currently, 6.3 million properties are classified as being at risk of flooding, a higher figure than previous estimates. Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the EA, said the frequency and severity of flooding was likely to become increasingly difficult in the future.
Flood risks by category
The EA classifies flood risk into three main categories: river flooding, coastal flooding and surface water flooding, which occurs when heavy rain overwhelms drainage systems. A property is considered ‘at risk’ when the annual probability of flooding is greater than 1 in 1,000. Currently, the EA reports that 4.6 million homes and businesses are at risk of flooding from water area, with London being the most affected region.
Although this represents a 43 percent increase on previous estimates, the rise is largely attributed to improved data sets and computer modeling techniques rather than a true increase in flood risk. However, the EA predicts that climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of surface flooding to around 6.1 million by mid-century.
Impact of climate change
There is evidence that global warming intensifies the intensity of heavy precipitation. For example, between October 2023 and March 2024, the amount of rain that fell on the stormiest days in the UK increased by around 20 percent on average due to climate change. The report also highlights the growing risk of flooding from rivers and seas, which will increase from 2.4 million properties currently to around 3.1 million by mid-century. The East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the South East of England are particularly vulnerable.
This type of flooding, which results from overflowing river banks or storm surges pushing seawater toward shore, often involves deeper floodwaters and can be particularly destructive. Wetter winters increase the likelihood of riverine flooding, while sea level rise increases the likelihood of coastal flooding. Global sea levels are mainly caused by the melting of glaciers and ice caps, as well as the occupation of more space by warmer waters.
Coastal erosion and sea level rise
Sea levels are expected to continue to rise for centuries. Average sea levels in the UK have already risen by almost 20cm since 1900, with most of this increase having occurred since 1990. This phenomenon also has cascading effects on coastal erosion, it is that is to say the movement of land along the coasts under the effect of wave action. The UK already has some of the fastest eroding coastlines in Europe.
According to the EA, climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of actually being lost to the sea to almost 20,000 by 2100, even if effective coastal management plans are put in place. This would be a considerable jump from the current estimate of 3,500 properties between now and mid-century.
Response and funding
The report focuses solely on the influence of climate change on future flood risks. Many other factors, such as building in floodplains and improved flood defenses, can also influence the impact of flooding.
For example, thanks in part to the Thames flood barrier, London is currently considered less vulnerable to riverine and coastal flooding than other regions. However, there have been recurring warnings that the UK is not sufficiently prepared to deal with the ramifications of a changing climate. Earlier this year, a committee of cross-party MPs warned that the government had not adequately maintained existing flood defenses or built enough new defences, with lack of funding a major problem.
In response to the report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy acknowledged that “too many communities are exposed to the dangers of flooding”. She said: “That’s why we’ve committed £2.4 billion over the next two years to maintain, repair and build flood defenses to protect communities across the country. »
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