“We're not just on defense, we're especially on offense! » Using a sporting formula, Christophe Fanichet, CEO of SNCF Voyageurs, summarizes the state of mind that reigns within this subsidiary of the national company, while the gradual opening to competition is changing the landscape.
This is true in Île-de-France, with in particular this year the allocation of line L of the Transilien. Also true in other regions, even if SNCF has won most of the tenders so far. This is also true for lines contributing to “territorial balance” such as Nantes-Bordeaux or Nantes-Lyon, whose new operators will be appointed shortly.
Transdev will operate the TER between Marseille and Nice
On these services benefiting from generous public subsidies, the SNCF faces limited competition, which more or less comes down to that of Keolis, whose capital it shares with the Caisse de dépôt du Québec, and Transdev, whose Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations – French – is in the process of ceding control to the private German group Rethmann. It was Transdev who was the first to beat the SNCF by winning the TER Marseille-Nice line, which it will operate from June.
The situation is different, the challenge even more exciting, when it comes to high speed. In the absence of direct funding from public authorities, it is passengers who allow the SNCF to operate its TGVs. The lines are, for a third, profitable, for another in balance, for a third in deficit. Those that are profitable compensate for the losses recorded on less busy lines.
Renfe and Trenitalia lead the way
However, competition weakens this model. Because new players are positioning themselves on the most profitable lines. The Spanish Renfe offers Lyon-Barcelona and Marseille-Madrid. The Italian Trenitalia, already present on Paris-Lyon-Milan, will announce this Tuesday January 21 the launch date of its Paris-Marseille.
If it loses market share on the busiest routes, will SNCF be able to maintain unprofitable lines? Concerned, the public authorities are working on this subject, with a solution proposed by the company: increase tolls on the most profitable lines to lower them on the least attractive routes.
In 2030, SNCF competitors will have 70 trainsets in France
In any case, competition is on track: in high speed, the SNCF's rivals today have a total of seven trainsets in France (compared to 360 for the national company). This figure is expected to increase tenfold by 2030, with the arrival of new players: Kevin Speed, who focuses on daily home-work travel between medium-sized towns and metropolises; Le Train, which wants to develop connections between Western cities; and Proxima, led by the former general director of Voyages SNCF, Rachel Picard, who raised a billion euros and ordered twelve trainsets from Alstom to serve Angers, Bordeaux, Nantes and Rennes from 2028.
-The SNCF takes this competition seriously and even more so the competition that is emerging internationally. The Virgin group, which owns the airline Virgin Atlantic, is preparing to invest the equivalent of 595 million euros in trains to put an end to the Eurostar monopoly between London and Paris.
Likewise, Arriva, the Dutch subsidiary of Deutsche Bahn, wants to connect Amsterdam to Paris from 2026. This service is also of interest to Trenitalia, which would also like to compete with the SNCF between Paris and Berlin, a destination to which it has just launched a direct eight-way service. hours in partnership with Deutsche Bahn…
The SNCF wants to grant itself 15% of high speed in Italy
To establish itself as the European leader in high speed, SNCF relies heavily on cross-border services as well as on the lines it operates among our neighbors, particularly in Spain, a market where it has captured between 16 and 25% share. with its low cost Ouigo. It has just completed its offer from Madrid to Cordoba, Seville and Malaga.
Next year it will also launch an offensive on the other side of the Alps, with nine round trips per day between Turin, Milan, Rome and Naples and four round trips between Turin and Venice. Objective: to secure 15% of high speed in Italy within 10 years.
“International represents 22% of our TGV traffic, and a third of high-speed turnover and results. The objective is to double this European turnover in 2030, to reach 30% of this same traffic”indicates Alain Krakovitch, director of the TGV-Intercités activity.
This involves establishing equalization at the European level and no longer at the French level, with international lines increasingly contributing to financing the least profitable lines in France. One thing is certain, according to him: this rail battle “will mechanically lead to a reduction in ticket prices”.
