Driven by large-scale projects, a visionary economic strategy and promising performances, Morocco is entering 2025 with the ambition to consolidate its role as a regional hub and accelerate its transformation. According to the “Annual strategy 2025” report from BMCE capital global research (BKGR), this year promises to be crucial for strengthening economic resilience and seizing the opportunities offered by strategic sectors such as tourism, infrastructure and renewable energies, while addressing the structural challenges linked to unemployment and water stress.
Morocco begins the year 2025 with clearly stated ambitions. Driven by structuring projects, a bold economic strategy and an increasingly favorable environment, the Kingdom is embarking on the path of transformation.
According to forecasts from BMCE Capital global research (BKGR), in the Annual Strategy 2025, this year promises to be a key step in strengthening economic resilience and consolidating its position as regional leader in several strategic sectors.
A solid economic recovery in 2025
Economic growth is expected to gain new momentum in 2025, with a forecast of 3.9% for GDP, a clear increase compared to 2024, when it stood at 3%. This acceleration is mainly attributable to the consolidation of non-agricultural added value, which is expected to increase by 3.7%, thanks to the dynamism of the secondary (+3.5%) and tertiary (+3.8%) sectors.
This renewed economic vitality is also based on strengthened domestic consumption, supported by controlled inflation, forecast at 2.4%, a level that is still favorable despite a slight increase compared to 2024 (+1%).
Internationally, Morocco benefits from a generally more stable environment, with global growth projected at 3.3% according to the IMF. These conditions open up expansion opportunities for export sectors such as automobiles, aeronautics and phosphates, which are among the pillars of the national economy.
A jump in foreign direct investment
The year 2024 marked a turning point for foreign direct investment (FDI), with an increase of 183%, reaching 23.8 billion dirhams (billion dirhams) at the end of November. This dynamic should not only be maintained, but also intensified in 2025, in particular thanks to strategic partnerships.
Among the flagship projects, we find the establishment of a gigafactory by the Gotion High-Tech group for a total investment of MAD 65 billion, as well as initiatives in the field of green hydrogen. These projects are not only symbolic; they reflect a clear desire of the Kingdom to establish itself as an industrial and logistics hub in Africa.
The national ambition is to attract more than five billion dollars in FDI per year by 2030, with cumulative economic benefits estimated at more than 300 billion dollars over the two decades following the organization of the World Cup. 2030.
Tourism and infrastructure, the drivers of growth
The tourism sector, a true locomotive of the national economy, achieved record performances in 2024, with 17.4 million visitors, positioning Morocco as the leading tourist destination in Africa, ahead of Egypt.
Tourism revenue reached MAD 104.5 billion, recording an increase of 7.2% compared to the previous year. This exceptional dynamic can be explained by constant efforts in the development of hotel infrastructure and tourism promotion.
At the same time, transport infrastructure, notably rail and road networks, has been the subject of massive investments to improve connectivity between cities. The construction sector also benefited from this excitement, with public projects reaching MAD 64 billion, up +42% compared to 2023.
Stock market: a record year in sight
The Casablanca Stock Exchange continues to demonstrate its resilience and attractiveness, with an exceptional performance in 2024. The MASI increased by 22.16%, reaching 14,773 points, its highest level since its creation.
This dynamic is expected to continue in 2025, driven by an attractive P/E of 17.7x, which reflects a solid outlook for investors. The sectors that recorded the best performances include real estate (+222% for MASI Immob), healthcare (+112%) and transport (+90%), each benefiting from the massive investments and structural reforms underway.
BKGR’s portfolio outperformed the market with an increase of 40.26% in 2024, demonstrating relevant management of investment opportunities.
Structural challenges ahead
Despite this optimistic outlook, significant challenges remain. The unemployment rate, for example, remains high, reaching 13.6% in Q3 – 2024, and is a major concern for policymakers. Job losses in the agricultural sector, exacerbated by water stress, accentuate this problem.
The trade deficit, which widened by +6.5%, reaching MAD 275.7 billion at the end of November 2024, also represents a significant obstacle. Although exports increased by 5.2%, to MAD 413.4 billion, dependence on imports, particularly of petroleum and food products, continues to weigh heavily on the trade balance.
To meet these challenges, Morocco is banking on structuring projects such as “water highways” and the development of desalination facilities, intended to mitigate the effects of water stress and strengthen economic resilience.
A tax strategy to strengthen purchasing power
The 2025 Finance Law provided for major reforms to improve the purchasing power of households. Among these, the expansion of the tax exemption threshold to 40,000 DH per year and the reduction of the marginal tax rate from 38% to 37% are key measures. These reforms aim to strengthen the middle class and stimulate sustainable consumption, a key element in supporting economic growth.
Encouraging prospects
Morocco is part of a long-term vision, with strong ambitions for 2025 and beyond. The economic fallout from major events like the 2030 World Cup and CAN 2025 could increase annual GDP by 0.5% to 1%, while stimulating investments in infrastructure and tourism.
In addition, the possible reintegration of the Casablanca Stock Exchange into the emerging markets category within 18 to 24 months strengthens the confidence of international investors.
These developments promise to position Morocco as a key player in regional and global economic development.
According to BKGR analysts, “the economic acceleration planned for 2025 reflects the strength of a proactive strategy and a clear vision of economic priorities”, a strong signal for the future of a rapidly evolving Morocco.
Sanae Raqui / ECO Inspirations
