Which emerging countries are best placed to benefit from the growing demand for green technologies and critical minerals? Here is the ranking established by the World Bank, in which Morocco appears.
In the race for energy transition, new players are emerging in the South. In the context of the fight against climate change, the world’s major economies are intensifying their efforts towards a green energy transition.
According to a recent World Bank analysis, these climate policies offer substantial opportunities for developing countries exporting green technologies and critical minerals.
“Policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions – such as emissions trading schemes and emissions regulations – as well as green subsidies will boost demand for renewable energy and critical minerals needed to the manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and highly energy-efficient devices,” explain World Bank analysts.
The Top 10 most economically exposed countries
The analysis identifies the 10 developing countries whose economies are most exposed to green technology exports to China, the European Union and the United States, measuring the potential impact as a percentage of GDP: North Macedonia comes first with economic exposure to green technology exports to these countries representing 11.6% of its GDP. The small economy of the Balkans is closely followed by Tunisia (9.4% of GDP), highlighting the strong dependence of these two countries on the markets of the great powers for these products.
Mexico, third with 5.7% of GDP, benefits from its proximity and its free trade agreement with the United States. It is well positioned to benefit from American demand for electric vehicle components, reinforced by the Inflation Reduction Act. Serbia (4th with 5.4%) and Nicaragua (5th with 4.3%) complete the top 5, demonstrating the importance of this sector for economies of various sizes.
Morocco, ranked 8th with 4% of GDP, is almost on par with Moldova (4.1%) and Vietnam (4.1%). Despite a slightly lower percentage, the Kingdom stands out for the greater economic weight of its exports.
For a country like Morocco, an exposure of 4% of GDP to green technology exports represents a much higher amount in absolute value than for smaller economies like those of Moldova or Nicaragua. The Kingdom shares this 8th place with Malaysia (3.9%), two emerging nations with diversified economies for which this sector constitutes a strategic growth lever. Cambodia (3.5%) closes the ranking.
Beyond the percentages, the analysis highlights the enormous disparities in terms of opportunities seized. It must be said that some countries have been able to take better advantage of their comparative advantage in exports of critical minerals or components than others.
Morocco, due to its resources in phosphates and rare clays, has development potential in batteries and solar panels that it has not yet fully exploited, unlike Mexico for example.
“For North Macedonia and Tunisia, exports of green technologies and their components to these three major markets represent around 12% and 9% of their GDP, respectively, which could have a significant economic impact,” emphasize the economists at the World Bank.
Opportunities in critical minerals
Beyond the technologies themselves, demand is also expected to explode for critical minerals used in batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Exports of critical minerals from developing countries are currently valued at $246.4 billion per year.
According to the International Energy Agency, global demand would need to double in volume within 15 years to meet energy targets and carbon neutrality commitments.
This represents a major opportunity for countries like Mozambique (more than half of the world’s graphite reserves), Argentina (22% of lithium) and Indonesia (18% of nickel).
Challenges and recommendations
Despite this encouraging outlook, experts highlight the challenges of complying with the new standards for exporters from developing countries. They recommend in particular promoting the adoption of green technologies, attracting foreign investment to these sectors, establishing carbon pricing mechanisms and strengthening quality infrastructure.
Advanced countries should avoid adopting protectionist measures that would harm the development prospects of those with low and middle incomes. Instead, they can support the green transition by sharing best practices, granting longer deadlines and providing financial and technical assistance.
BC / ECO Inspirations
