France remains the second most populous country in the European Union behind Germany. According to the demographic report unveiled this Tuesday, January 14 by INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies), it now has 68.6 million inhabitants. This is slightly more than last year: + 0.25%, or 169,000 additional inhabitants.
This low population growth is partly explained by the continued decline in the birth rate. Only 663,000 children were born in France last year. A decline of 2.2% compared to 2023 but of 21.5% if we compare it to the peak observed in 2010.
The combined consequence of the increase in the number of deaths is a historically low natural balance (difference between births and deaths). It is estimated in 2024 at +17,000 people, its lowest level since the end of the Second World War. “If the hypothesis of a fertility rate stabilizes at 1.8 children per woman, the natural balance could become negative in the mid-2030s,” says Sylvie, head of demographic and social studies at INSEE. If it drops to 1.6 children per woman, the curves could cross as early as 2027.” Net migration is provisionally estimated at +152,000 people in 2024.
Fewer children per woman and older mothers
“The number of women of childbearing age remains stable in France, so the drop in the birth rate is essentially due to the drop in the fertility rate,” explains Sylvie Le Minez
The number of children per woman of childbearing age continues to decline. The total fertility indicator (TCI) stands at 1.62 children per woman (1.59 in mainland France). In 2023, it was still 1.66. This decline has been continuous since 2010 when the TFR stood at 2.03 children per woman in mainland France.
To find a trace of a TFR as low as that of last year, we have to go back to the end of the First World War. In 1919, it was 1.59 children per woman after falling to 1.23 at the heart of the conflict.
The average age of mothers in the maternity ward also continues to increase. He is now a little over 31 years old. The 30-34 year old group is the most represented among mothers (11.1 children per hundred women in this age group) ahead of the 25-29 year olds (8.8 children) and the 35-39 year olds (6. 7 children). Women who give birth under 25 and over 40 remain very rare. “France, however, remains the most fertile country in Europe ahead of Romania and Bulgaria,” specifies Sylvie Le Minez.
The gap in life expectancy between men and women is narrowing
Although the number of deaths increased to 646,000 last year (+1.1%), life expectancy stabilized at a historically high level. It is 85.6 years for women and 80 years for men. A difference which has tended to diminish over the past thirty years. The gap, which was 7.1 years in 2004, is now 5.6 years. “It remains high compared to other countries,” explains Sylvie Le Minez. The rapprochement in the lifestyles of women and men, particularly regarding tobacco consumption, explains the reduction in this gap in life expectancy. » That of the European Union remains dominated by Spain for women (86.7 years) and Malta for men (81.8 years).
The proportion of people over 65 in France, on the other hand, is within the European standard. In 2024, 21.8% of inhabitants will have exceeded this milestone. Aging has been accelerating over the past twenty years with the arrival of the baby boom generations, born from 1945. Among them, those over 75 now represent 10.7% of the population. Those under 15 represent 16.7% of people living in France.
More and more marriages
The page of Covid which had led to a sharp decline in wedding celebrations between confinements and organizational difficulties has well and truly turned. The number of marriages increased by another 2% last year and is estimated at 247,000, including 7,000 between people of the same sex. The 2024 total is therefore 10% higher than that of 2019.
The number of PACS, established for the year 2023, amounts to 204,000. Twenty-five years after the adoption of this civil solidarity pact, 10,600 of them are concluded between people of the same sex.
