DECRYPTION – Sovereign bond markets have generally been under pressure since the start of the year. Future American policy worries investors.
This Thursday, the yield on French ten-year sovereign rates soared, climbing to 3.40% at the start of the morning, the highest since 2011 with the exception of a market peak in October 2023. In a generally febrile environment for sovereign bonds, France stands out due to the political risk weighing on the country since the last legislative elections. This is the evolution of the gap between the yield of French and German bonds, the famous “spread”, which makes it possible to measure the degree of concern regarding the trajectory of French public finances. In the spring, before the dissolution, this “spread” fluctuated around 50 basis points (or 0.50%).
However, on Thursday morning, it peaked at 84 points, a whisker from the 87 points reached on the eve of the censorship of the Barnier government, and at a higher level than during the dissolution announced in June. After the surprise of the presidential announcement, the “spread” had…
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France