Crucial week for Justin Trudeau’s political future

At rock bottom in the polls and disowned by some within his own camp, Justin Trudeau is beginning a decisive week in Ottawa. The latter took the time, during the holiday season, to think about his political future, as his father had done some forty years earlier. What will come out of this?

Here is a reminder of previous episodes and the dates to highlight on your calendar so as not to miss any of this political saga, several of which could take place this week.

Monday 6 January. Like last Friday, the Prime Minister will participate virtually in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee responsible for Canadian-American relations. The committee was reformed following Donald Trump’s re-election and one of the main topics of discussion at the meetings so far has been border security, after the new president threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian products.

No other activity is on his official agenda on Monday.

From Tuesday 7 Januarythe Conservative Party of Canada (PCC) intends to present a new motion of censure to bring down Justin Trudeau’s government at the end of January. The Public Accounts Committee will meet from January 7 to examine this umpteenth motion.

If the motion is adopted, the Committee’s report will be tabled in Parliament on January 27, the first day the committee resumes work after the six-week holiday break. The motion of censure can then be put to a vote in the House of Commons from Thursday January 30.

All opposition parties have already indicated that they would vote in favor of such a motion.

Wednesday 8 January. A meeting of the federal Liberal caucus is on the agenda while the Liberal Party of Canada is sailing through a storm. Last week, two new MPs (Ontarian Peter Fragiskatos and Manitoban Ben Carr) were added to the list of MPs and regional caucuses calling for Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

The Prime Minister has been in turmoil since the surprise resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Finance and number 2 in the government, on the day his economic update was tabled. The one who headed Finance for the Trudeau government for more than four years confirmed at the same time the disagreements that had arisen between her and the Prime Minister.

Mr. Trudeau had just asked him to give up his place in Finance to the former governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, on whom several Liberals are banking on to lead the country in the near future.

While Justin Trudeau is in an ejection seat, Mr. Carney and Ms. Freeland are busy measuring their respective support within the party. According to a recent Angus Reid poll, Chrystia Freeland would be the candidate who would attract the most support (21%) for the PLCin the event of an election. Less well known, Mark Carney collected 14% at the time of the online survey conducted from December 27 to 31 among 2,406 respondents.

Thursday January 9. The United States will bid a final farewell to former US President Jimmy Carter, who died on December 29 at the age of 100. A sign of the uncertainty reigning on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, it is not known whether Prime Minister Trudeau will attend the funeral.

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In addition, a meeting of the Quebec Liberal caucus is scheduled for Thursday. We will then know if, like those of Ontario and the Atlantic, the Quebec caucus will also demand the resignation of the Prime Minister.

Two scenarios are possible at the end of this week. If he stays, that’s his prerogative, Prime Minister Trudeau will have to rally his troops and start preparing for an election this spring, with the opposition parties all out to bring him down.

If he decides to leave, it will then be necessary to trigger an accelerated process within the party to find a successor. He would also likely have to go to the Office of the Governor General to ask her to suspend parliamentary work while a replacement is found.

With information from Daniel Thibault and Alexandre Lepoutre