Could the “top 3” of the largest French cities – Paris, Marseille, Lyon – fall? The publication of the latest census of reference populations by INSEE, for the period 2016-2022, suggests that the cards should soon be reshuffled. If Paris loses inhabitants (2.165 million in total) and Marseille sees its demographic growth slow down (873,076 inhabitants), that of Lyon is struggling even more, with a population gain of only 0.2% on average per year. , for a total of 520,774 inhabitants.
Direct consequence: the third city in France is now closely followed by Toulouse, placed in fourth place with only 9,000 inhabitants difference, or 511,684 inhabitants in total. The Capital of Gaul has only gained 5,200 inhabitants overall in six years, underlines the Institute of Statistical Studies, compared to 36,000 for Toulouse… A historic change to the third step of the podium which is, perhaps, is already a reality, if Toulouse has continued to grow at the rate of 6,000 new inhabitants per year between 2022 and the end of 2024.
In Lyon, stormy starts
The Lyon situation was expected. The third French city has seen the wave of departures intensify in recent years. A brake “ which is explained by the slowdown in net migration », remarks Johanne Aude, project manager of INSEE regional action in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. In other words, “ there are now more departures than arrivals » in the city of Lyon.
The city of Lyon recorded a migration balance of -0.6%, while it was stable (+0.1%) over the previous period, from 2011 to 2016.
The natural balance, namely the difference between births and deaths, remains positive (+0.7%) and even “dynamic” according to INSEE. A score which allows, for the moment, Lyon to compensate for the loss of inhabitants, while the neighboring department of Ain, but also that of Haute-Savoie, attracted by the dynamics of the Lyon and Geneva conurbations, in win. They are respectively ranked 11th and 6th among French departments with the strongest population growth.
The Metropolis of Lyon, for its part, is doing better overall, with growth of 0.6% in the number of inhabitants, but with disparities. If the municipalities of Lyon and Vénissieux are marking time, that of Villeurbanne almost triples its growth points in six years.
In the Lyon region, “rebalancing” the territories
This slowdown in demographics has in any case been anticipated for many years in the Lyon region. The elected environmentalists, at the head of the city and the Metropolis, even relied on this factor to build their attractiveness policy.
In 2022, Béatrice Vessiller, vice-president of Greater Lyon responsible for town planning, already specified The Tribune that the community had “ exceeded the demographic objectives planned for 2030 “. Then adding that “ we re-examine the development of Lyon, climate issues, land sobriety, quality of life, mobility and solidarity ».
Through its economic agency Aderly, Greater Lyon wants to welcome “less, but better” but also greener
This orientation trickled down to the attractiveness agency: Aderly. In 2022, Bruno Bernard (EELV), president of Greater Lyon, specified to the Tribune that the “metropolis of Lyon cannot grow indefinitely”thus emphasizing “a need to rebalance territories, particularly on the issue of mobility”.
“We will therefore have to assume densification where there is public transport and invest in public transport, where we densify” he summarized. This vision is unfolding with the extension of the metro B and tram T6 lines, and the construction of two new lines, T9 and T10.
This territorial rebalancing also finds an echo in terms of industry, transport, recruitment… Since 2022, Aderly has worked in a broader scope, ranging from the economic area of Saint-Etienne (Loire) to a side, to that of Bourg-en-Bresse (Ain) on the other.
Toulouse, the third city in France?
HAS Toulouse, elected officials are instead banking on an attractiveness strategy focused on the heart of the city and its key sectors of activity. Rather profitable: the city is still experiencing very strong demographic growth, with 6,000 new Toulouse residents on average each year.
The trend has even accelerated since Toulouse had gained 28,000 inhabitants between 2011 and 2016, around 5,500 per year. This demographic dynamism is linked both to the high number of births, but also to attractiveness.
« Considering these results, we could be, today, the third city in France », commented the councilor of the commune Jean-Luc Moudenc (LR).
For the mayor, “ the tremendous dynamism of Toulouse residents explains this vitality, reinforced by our work to improve the diversity of the service offering and the quality of life in all neighborhoods. We are working to ensure that Toulouse preserves its identity as a welcoming, pleasant and friendly city. ».
Jean-Luc Moudenc is also delighted that “ this influence benefits the municipalities around Toulouse, and allows synergy in the development of our entire metropolis and beyond ».
Aerospace dynamics
For years, the Pink City has been pursuing an offensive policy of attractiveness, to encourage businesses to come and set up shop. In just a few years, it has become the promised land of NewSpace players, with an influx of around ten foreign space start-ups in the space of two years: the Californian Loft Orbital, the Japanese Astroscale, the Portuguese Tekever. But also the Slovak 3IPK, the Bulgarian Endurosat, the Canadian Connektica, and the Swiss Cysec.
In competition with Paris, Bordeaux, but also other European countries, Toulouse wins almost every time, by deploying great resources to court start-ups attracted by the richness of the ecosystem of the historic European space capital, but also their quality of life.
Aeronautics: Aura Aero joins forces with Airbus to certify its future electric regional aircraft
Since the health crisis, the same excitement has been observed in the field of low-carbon aviation. In the wake of the Airbus hydrogen plane project, a handful of start-ups were born or grew up in Toulouse. This is the case of Aura Aero and its regional electric aircraft project (250 recruitments in six years). But also from Beyond Aero, which wants to create a hydrogen-powered business jet (50 engineers and 40 recruitments planned in the coming months). Or the Singaporean start-up H3 Dynamics, specializing in hydrogen fuel cells and most of whose workforce is now in the Pink City. The other side of the coin: the new real estate market remains sluggish and construction professionals fear that the housing supply will prove insufficient to accommodate all these new arrivals.
