Faced with all the unknowns surrounding the tramway project, despite the signing of a final agreement, Mayor Bruno Marchand finds himself in the shoes of a navigator who proceeds by sight, without all the required instruments, hoping to arrive safely in the desired conditions.
Bearer of what he describes as good news, despite a further postponement of the commissioning to 2033 and an explosion in costs linked to delays, the mayor of Quebec met the press on Tuesday to explain how the City wishes to finance the tramway over 10 years.
On the one hand, the City will draw from the climate change reserve. We are also counting on tax benefits from projects ready to go and to come.
Good news, the mayor is also renouncing to impose a fee on developers, as he committed to during the electoral campaign. The measure would have had a pushback effect.
The idea of paying cash for the work appears interesting, because the City will avoid interest costs of $500M. This is provided that we follow the plan.
As for counting on additional tax revenues, the uncertainty linked to the project could delay the “synergistic effect” on which the mayor is counting, based on experiences in Montreal or Brossard.
The federal issue
Because in the case of the Quebec tramway, even if an agreement has been signed with Quebec, a significant financial contribution from the federal government is still missing. This adds to the fact that the government in place could fall quickly.
On the one hand, Minister Geneviève Guilbault blames the federal government and demands that it pay its share. On the other hand, the federal government repeats that it is still waiting for documents from the Quebec government. We are not out of the woods, especially if the conservatives, who oppose the project, come to power.
Mayor Marchand can always claim that this does not scare him, because all the ingredients are there to avoid being dependent on elections.
There are, however, limits to the risks that CDPQI and the Quebec government will agree to bear, even if the latter has committed to reimbursing the City for future preparatory work.
Besides, if Mme Guilbault is so committed to the completion of the project, she should in turn avoid having “green words and gray gestures” when she talks about it, to paraphrase an expression she used yesterday about the federal government.
The elected official has continued to undermine the social acceptability of the project since 2018. Nothing to help her in her negotiations.
Improve the balance sheet
A few weeks before an election year, Bruno Marchand is very happy to include the signing of the agreement on the tramway in golden letters in a balance sheet that has hitherto been beige.
It is not for nothing that he promised a first shovelful of ground in the spring, when we will still be planning, not carrying out.
Even if he claims that the tramway has already started, he has already said the same thing… just before the tramway was put on hold in 2023. The City had then ceased to be the project manager, which constituted a setback and a major encroachment on its municipal powers.
Here too, we will have to see to what extent the City will have the power of persuasion and decision-making vis-à-vis its partners. The minister will be able to decide in certain respects, and CPDQI will be responsible for surrounding developments. The mayor says he has confidence. I find him optimistic.
