The general population census conducted by the High Commission for Planning, of which Chakib Benmoussa is now High Commissioner, is an x-ray of the state of our country and our fellow Moroccan citizens. The exercise is tedious and requires rigor to comprehensively produce this demographic, social and economic map of the Kingdom. But, in the era of Data, the data compiled and processed by the HCP are crucial for anyone who wants to understand the structural changes that Morocco is experiencing and how its population is impacted.
This will certainly not be the most commented on figure, but it is one of the reasons for this type of national survey, between 2014 and 2024, the population increased with an average annual growth rate of 0.85 %, down compared to the period 2004-2014 when it stood at 1.25%. More precisely, the Synthetic Fertility Index (TSF), expressed as the average number of children per woman, increased from 2.5 in 2004 to 2.2 in 2014, reaching 1.97 in 2024. This level of fertility is now below the generation replacement threshold, which is 2.1 children per woman.
And, the downward trend in fertility concerns both urban and rural women, with a TFR per woman in urban areas of 1.77 in 2024 compared to 2.01 in 2014, and 2.37 in 2024 compared to 2 .55 in 2014 in rural areas. The causes of this drop in fertility are closely linked to the development of the country, to an increased participation of Moroccan women in national economic life and to a change in family priorities in an economic context which is not flamboyant for households, despite the undeniable progress of the last 25 years. It is this state of affairs which must be impacted in the upcoming reform of the Moudawana, which cannot ignore what the figures indicate about the state of emancipation of women and the need to reassess the place that they occupy as much as guaranteeing the most fundamental rights acquired by men.
The aging of the population is the second major symptom noted by this highly anticipated national census. The share of Moroccans aged over 60 increased from 9.4% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024 with an average annual increase of 4.6% during this period, significantly higher than that of the entire population. population which stands at 0.85%. And, with these figures, another reform inevitably comes to mind, that of the national pension system, which is experiencing a deep crisis and which risks becoming a thorn in the future if it is not implemented. carried out quickly. We will also have to gradually but surely rethink our model of society, in order to guarantee that our elders continue to be treated with the respect and dignity they deserve, in line with our values and our social culture, surrounded by their loved ones, and without blindly reproducing Western models where specialized dying rooms have multiplied.
Another notable point of the HCP survey, the unemployment rate which in the second quarter of 2024 is 13.1%, but which is much higher among young people aged 15 to 24 (36.1%), graduates (19.4%) and women (17.7%). These figures demonstrate the road still to be covered for Morocco, which has not yet completely left the wadi. The current economic dynamic driven by the industrialization of the country, the growth of tourism, energy or infrastructure investments, among others, must also lead to more inclusive development, for young people and women on the one hand, rural areas on the other hand and the regions elsewhere.
Because it is a single Morocco and a single Moroccan people that must move forward, not just a cohort, an elite, concentrated in an economically hypertrophied region compared to the rest of the country.
Zouhair Yata
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