Requested by TimePhilippe Cordonier, head of the French-speaking branch of Swissmem, emphasizes that “it is the accumulation of challenges to overcome which is currently making business operations very difficult for the industrial sector. Over the last ten years, firms have learned to adapt to the strong franc, in particular by increasing their efficiency and focusing on innovation.
Weakness of Germany
The obstacles for exporting companies have in fact strengthened, according to the survey conducted in November among 413 participants: two thirds of the companies surveyed note that they sell fewer goods and services abroad. In May, almost 50% mentioned this problem. The industrial sector is among the branches most affected by this trend. And it is the weakness of Germany and its automobile sector which is particularly worrying.
These elements also reflect the figures published by the State Secretariat for the Economy (Seco) last week. Between July and the end of September, Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted to exclude the impact of sporting events such as the Olympics, increased by only 0.2%, compared to 0.4% in previous quarter.
Despite this slowdown, Switzerland is expected to record GDP growth of 1.1% this year, according to forecasts from Economiesuisse. The umbrella organization is thus less optimistic than the KOF – the economic research center of the ETH Zurich – and the Seco which, for their part, anticipate an advance of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. The Swiss economy should, however, recover more robustly than that of the euro zone, where an increase of 0.8% is expected.
Slight increase in unemployment
In 2025, the challenges abroad will therefore tend to intensify. Overall, Economiesuisse expects exports of goods and services to increase only slightly next year. “Weak demand should weigh especially on the machinery and watchmaking industries, sectors that are highly dependent on Germany and China,” the specialists indicate. In these two countries, economic forecasts are indeed weak.
The solidity of the domestic market as well as the great diversification, both in terms of products and sales markets, will help companies to overcome the difficulties. A possible increase in customs tariffs in the United States could, however, upset these forecasts.
Next year, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 2.6%, as the labor shortage eases. In 2024, this indicator is forecast at 2.4%.
