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Only a few days ago, snow fell in several departments of France. See a city like Paris, in November, wearing your best white coat was obviously surprising. Consequently, the French have a lot of questions about the upcoming weather.
Because, if they like to see the snow in November, they would prefer to see the flakes falling in December, at the time of the Christmas holidays. As we arrive at the month of December, what does the weather have in store for us? Of course, forecasts become less reliable after three to five days. However, they allow us to identify general trends. So, will Christmas be as white as in a TF1 TV movie?
What does the weather have in store for us in December?
According to several weather models, the month of December could be in a slightly warmer and drier dynamic than normal. However, this does not mean a total absence of cold or precipitation throughout the month.
Indeed, weather forecasts highlight the presence of occasional variations. In other words, the month of December will, in several points, similar to the month of November. As a general rule, gentleness might be in order. But be careful of the cold waves that can temporarily hit.
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The November forecast was similar. And, as the month comes to an end, we can say that they were right. The temperatures were generally pleasant, which did not prevent the snow from falling. Localized episodes that differ from general trends are a custom now.
Weather: forecast models that contradict each other?
Generally, sites that talk about the weather rely on the American GFS and European ECMWF models to analyze climate prospects. However, these two models do not bring the same conclusions about the weather in December.
Indeed, GFS predicts an overall warmer than normal December. Experts expect surprisingly high temperatures in northern France. For his part, ECMWF anticipates a slightly cooler month. This model therefore leaves the door open to cold spells, particularly during the end-of-year holidays.
Concerning rainfall, GFS forecasts a generally standard situation, with a wetter start to the month and a wetter week of Christmas, which could cause snow depending on temperatures. However, ECMWF shows a wet first week in the south of the country, followed by a dry period and no clear trend for the rest. Several hypotheses are therefore possible in this case.
Will the snow fall?
On the specific question of snow, Météo-Villes insists on the impossibility of predicting a snowy episode in the plains more than a few days in advance. Snow, a local and often short-lived phenomenon, escapes large-scale forecasts. At present, weather forecasts cannot predict such an episode. However, they do not rule out this hypothesis.
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For his part, The Weather Channel agrees with this analysis and anticipates generally mild and dry weeks.. She expects the month to start with temperatures slightly above seasonal norms. Until the Christmas holidays approach, calm conditions with temperatures oscillating between normal and slightly above levels should predominate.
Snow may therefore fall at Christmas. But it is currently too early to anticipate it. After all, no projections anticipated falling snowflakes in the middle of November.
