Since Sunday evening, we have heard a lot about “the” second round and projections in seats made by polling institutes on a national sample.
Two postulates that do not allow for a valid analysis of the political situation. First, there will not be “one” second round but 501 second rounds across the country because 76 deputies have already been elected in the first round.
Then, the seat projections from a national survey are very unreliable because they do not take into account the specificities of each constituency or the Republican withdrawals made since Sunday. Without prejudging the transfer of votes, they fundamentally change the physiognomy of the second rounds.
Dishonor
Some Macronists, beneficiaries of the RN’s rejection vote, had a hard time stepping aside when they came in third place. No matter: wherever they did so, even after leaving doubts hanging, they saved their honor.
Others cannot say the same, like Anne-Laurence Petel in the Aix-Trets constituency who, by staying, is taking the risk of winning a seat for the RN in a territory where it has never been influential. This is politically suicidal as well as irresponsible given the situation in the country.
Wherever doubts remain, as in the first constituency of Var, where Yannick Chenevard (Ensemble) came 2e behind the RN but in front of the rebellious candidate of the Popular Front, they must be lifted.
All second rounds will be decisive. No vote should be missing for all those who confront the extreme right.
