Legislative 2024: how the RN is gradually establishing itself in Paris and the inner suburbs

Paris and its inner suburbs once again going against the grain. After resisting the National Rally wave during the European elections, the capital and its three neighboring departments once again distinguished themselves by not placing the RN at the head of the legislative elections, like the majority of the country.

A first candidate for the second round in Paris

The observation is clear: the party led by Jordan Bardella came first in 297 constituencies out of 577 in France, or more than one in two. Of the 54 constituencies comprising Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-de-Marne and Hauts-de-Seine, he didn’t come in first place once. Worse, only 7 candidates will see the second round on Sunday July 7, 2024, i.e. less than 8%still far from the national average.

But if the finalist party in the last two presidential elections has not yet passed the threshold, he nevertheless gains votes in each election and begins to stabilize in the political landscape of the region.

For example, if it does not send any candidate to the second round in the Hauts-de-Seinethe RN saw its 13 candidates glean between 13% and 17% in each constituency. In the capital, the logic is a little different, but remains in a similar spirit: scores between 8 and 12% in the center, west and north, mainly acquired by the left, and higher scores in the east (15th, 16th and 17th): around 15% in this territory more anchored on the right.

For the first time, a candidate advanced to the second round (also supported by Éric Ciotti and his allies). It is Louis Picquet in the 14th constituency (part of the 16th arrondissement, Auteuil and La Muette districts, and part of the Porte Dauphine district not included in the 4th district).

Scores that explode in Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne

In Val-de-Marne and Seine-Saint-Denis, these are six candidats (three per department) who reached the second round. For these two territories, the mobilization – among the weakest in the country – can explain this breakthrough of the RN, because its voters are the quickest to move.

The absence of candidates from the presidential camp, only three out of 12 constituencies in Seine-Saint-Denis, is also a fact that pushed the National Rally candidates to the second round. In Coubron, the town that had voted the most for Jordan Bardella in the European elections, Jean-François Perier totaled almost 40% of the votes.

If the department should remain on the left, 10 of the 12 RN candidates present exceeded 10%, seven exceeded 15% and three exceeded 20%. : Denis Cretin-Gielly (3rd, 21.28%), Sébastien Jolivet (8th, 23.86%) and Jean-François Perier (12th, 26.04%).

In Val-de-Marne, the candidates also collected homogeneous scores: eight of them made between 13.89 and 18.89%. Three candidates also took advantage of the rise of the RN to reach the second round: Isabelle Huguenin-Richard (5th, 20.40%), Alain Philippet (4th, 26.95%) and Arnaud Barbotin (3rd, 27.31%).

After taking several years to become a major player in the French political landscape, the National Rally seems to be reproducing its strategy in the region.

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