There were 12 of them on the evening of the second round in 2022. Two years later, 12 RN candidates were elected on the evening of the first round in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais. Marine Le Pen’s party politically dominates the region – that’s a fact – and could win new constituencies on the evening of July 7. Interview with Tristan Haute, lecturer at the University of Lille.
12 RN deputies elected from 1is round, candidates from the far-right party qualified in all constituencies for the second round… the RN wave swept across the whole of Nord and Pas-de-Calais on the evening of 1is round of partial legislative elections.
“It’s simply considerable,” reacts, hot, Tristan Haute. “Especially since we recorded very significant results in areas that we thought were protected from the RN: Pèvèle, where the RN candidate obtained more than 35% of the votes, the 2 Lille constituencies where the RN qualified for the second round”explains the lecturer in political science at the University of Lille. “It’s unprecedented, and it’s quite unexpected.”
Election after election, however, the RN’s scores in our departments continue to swell. But according to Tristan Haute, the situation is different this time: the far-right wave has swept everything away.12 seats in the first round, this shows that RN voters were particularly mobilized from the 1is tour”indicates the political scientist.
Everything was swept away, including leading local political figures who were abruptly eliminated on the 1stis tour. “The “notability” and “local capital” effects that certain elected officials could claim were of little help to themhe summarizes. Fabien Roussel in Saint-Amand-les-Eaux and Benjamin Saint Huile in Maubeuge were swept away… Valérie Létard finds herself in great difficulty in Valenciennois…”. Let us also mention Jean-Marc Tellier, communist deputy of Lens, distanced by 10,000 votes from the RN candidate and eliminated in the 1is tour.
While 65% of voters went to vote in Nord Pas-de-Calais – or 20 points more than in 2022 – the RN has never been so successful in mobilizing: 4 out of 10 voters who traveled to vote in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais slipped an RN ballot into the ballot box. “And even if they have absorbed the electorate of Eric Zemmour and part of the right, they still have potential for development with the strategy of uniting the right.”
In Arras, a constituency acquired in the center, the RN candidate comes in first with 37%. Same observation in Le Touquet, a center-right constituency, where the outgoing deputy of the presidential majority is 12 points behind the RN candidate. “The question now is whether we are going for a grand slam or not?” summarizes Tristan Haute.
However, according to him, “the RN wave can stop in the region, on two conditions: participation and the transfer of votes”. Participation first, which must be “as important or even more important for the second round”. According to the lecturer, we should not rely on the in-seat projections proposed by polling institutes, announcing between 240 and 280 RN deputies and allies on the evening of July 7. “Beyond caution, these projections also encourage mobilization.”
The more triangles you have and the less clear the instructions, the more difficult it will be to stop the RN wave.
Tristan Haute, lecturer at the University of Lille
Then comes the question of configurations, constituency by constituency, and possible carryover of votes in the name of the Republican front. While 12 triangulars are announced in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais, at least 5 candidates from the left or from the presidential majority have already announced their withdrawal to stand up.
This is particularly the case in the 5th of the North, constituency of Weppes, where the candidate of the union of the left arrived in 3th position announced its withdrawal to block the outgoing RN deputy and candidate for re-election. “Victor Catteau certainly made 40%, but Sébastien Huyghes, supported by the majority, could win on Sunday”analyses Tristan Haute.
Another example in the 5th Pas-de-Calais, that of Boulogne-sur-Mer. The outgoing Ensemble MP, who came third, announced his withdrawal. Although Jean-Pierre Pont did not give voting instructions, he allowed his voters to vote for Olivier Barbarin, the PS candidate who came second far behind the RN.
“The issue is not whether or not an RN MP will pass in his constituency, but whether the RN will have an absolute majority in the National Assembly,” summarizes Tristan Haute. Although it is difficult to anticipate the evening of the second round, the political scientist nevertheless assures us: “the region will provide a significant contingent of elected officials to the National Rally.”
