We knew this was a historic election: the first legislative elections following a dissolution since that of Jacques Chirac in 1997 put the RN on the brink of power for the first time in France. The results released on Sunday, June 30 at 8 p.m. did not deny the stakes: the presidential party was put in the minority and, for the first time under the Fifth Republic, the far right came out on top in the first round of the legislative elections (it had come out on top in the European elections of 2014, 2019 and 2024). With 34% of the vote, according to Ifop estimates, the National Rally led by Jordan Bardella confirmed the polls that had given it the lead throughout the three weeks of the express campaign.
It is 5 points ahead of the alliance of left-wing parties, under the label of the New Popular Front (NFP), which reached 29.1% and left the presidential majority in third place, at 22%. In this battle, the three blocs leave only crumbs to the right of the Republicans, who must be content with 9.5%. At 10 p.m. on Sunday, however, it remained impossible to say whether the RN was guaranteed to keep its lead in the second round on July 7, or whether it could envisage winning an absolute majority.
« Clarification »
On June 9, on the evening of the European elections, Emmanuel Macron justified his dissolution as “an act of trust” to the French people and presented this consultation as a “time for clarification essential”. But the president seems to have underestimated the feeling of distrust or rejection among the population. His strategy, which consisted of demonizing the extremes, going so far as to threaten a risk of ” civil war “, even turned against its author. The first round was played out on two dynamics, for or anti-RN, and the majority found themselves excluded from the competition.
The dissolution has caused a lot of incomprehension and anger among public opinion, but the fact is that it has risen to the challenge with more than six out of ten voters (66% according to Ifop) going to the polls. This is almost 20 points more than in the previous editions of 2017 and 2022. This very high turnout seems to have benefited the three blocs.
Speaking at 8:10 p.m. from Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais) where she was elected in the first round, Marine Le Pen welcomed “an unambiguous vote”. She sees there “the desire to turn the page after seven years of corrosive power”. As thousands of protesters began to gather in Paris at Place de la République against the far right, Marine Le Pen called on the French to give her party an absolute majority to send Jordan Bardella to Matignon.
The RN went from 4 to 12 million voters
A quarter of an hour later, from the party’s campaign headquarters, Jordan Bardella in turn called for a strong turnout on July 7. The second round of the legislative elections will be “one of the most decisive in the entire history of the Fifth Republic” he said. “France has a choicehe insists. On the one hand, the alliance of the worst behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which would lead to disorder, insurrection and the ruin of our country. On the other, national unity (…) This unprecedented alliance, motivated by national interest, is now the only republican and patriotic bulwark. »
The RN had 89 outgoing deputies. It could have between 230 and 280 in the next Assembly, and the prospect of obtaining an absolute majority with 289 deputies is far from assured. In terms of number of votes, the progression of the far-right party is however impressive because it goes from 4 million voters in the first round of 2022 to 12 million two years later, while the left bloc, in terms of number of votes, is holding steady.
From the start of the evening, the names of the candidates elected in the first round began to be announced. There should be between 65 and 80 in total. Overseas, where participation was also very strong, two outgoing deputies in Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia qualified in the first round.
Record number of triangulars
But it is now towards the second round that all eyes are turning. The low number of candidates (4,000) and the high participation indicated that, mechanically, they had a greater chance of crossing the threshold of 12.5% of those registered which allows them to remain in the second round. Sunday evening, the results resulted in an extremely large number of triangulars, between 270 and 320 before withdrawals according to the institutes in the 577 constituencies. There were only 79 in the election following the dissolution of 1997 and only 8 in 2022.
The whole evening was therefore animated by the question of the Republican front against the extreme right and the choice of the left-wing parties and the majority to maintain or not their candidate who came in third position.
Republican Front
LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon pointed out “the heavy and indisputable defeat” inflicted on the president and presented the NFP as “the only real alternative” on the far right. In the case of a triangular, “in accordance with our principles, nowhere will we allow the RN to win.” In the event that an NFP candidate is in third position, “we will withdraw our candidacy (…) Our instructions are simple, direct and clear: not one more vote, not one more seat for the RN,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon has committed.
Conversely, the Les Républicains party refused in a press release to give voting instructions. “Where we are not present in the second round, considering that voters are free to choose, we do not give national instructions and let the French express themselves in conscience”indicated the management of LR.
Within the majority, the boss of the Horizons party, Édouard Philippe, in turn announced that his candidates who came in third place would withdraw to avoid the election of RN deputies. But also when an LFI candidate could win. In fact, a neither-RN nor-LFI. For the formation of the former prime minister, the republican front will therefore only play to the benefit of a socialist, environmentalist or communist candidate to block the RN.
While the first surprises enlivened the electoral evening (François Ruffin in difficulty in the Somme and Fabien Roussel beaten in the North), the intervention of Gabriel Attal, Prime Minister, was long overdue. The Republican front will indeed be the big political question of the days to come.
Find, as soon as they are officially published,The results of the first round of the 2024 legislative elections, municipality by municipality.
