The RN has already won the second constituency (Beauvais). Philippe Balard returns to the Bourbon Palace without waiting for July 7.
1st constituency: Beauvais Breteuil
Beuil RN advantage
Claire Marais-Beuil RN comes out on top with 46.19% of the vote. She is ahead of Victor Habert-Dassault by more than 10,000 votes. Roxane Lundy, from the new popular front, is eliminated because she does not reach 12.5% of registered voters.
For the second round, Olivier Dassault’s nephew can hope to cast a wide net and recover everything that is not RN. But he has a way to go. He would have to do like his great-grandfather. Nothing like the 500 franc note discreetly slipped into the voter’s hand. But good traditions are being lost. And Olivier Dassault taught his nephew the virtues of parsimony.
RN Beuil advantage.
Claire MARAIS-BEUIL RN 24,621 46.19% – qualified
Victor HABERT-DASSAULT LR 13,049 24.48% – qualified
Roxane LUNDY AND 9 402 17.64%
Matty GUTIERREZ ENS 4,062 7.62%
Axelle LATRASSE ECO 749 1,41%
Souhail AOUAD DVC 728 1.37%
Jean-Philippe FRUITIER EXG 348 0.65%
Norbert DEPRESLES REC 339 0,64%
2nd constituency: Beauvais Chaumont-en-Vexin
Ballard RN elected
Philippe Ballard RN goes to the first round. Spokesperson for the RN, he was always on TV sets. It didn’t do him any harm. Ludovic Castanié LR was the only one in his category without a Macronist competitor. This union didn’t work. The match is over.
Philippe BALLARD RN 30 823 53,20%
Ludovic CASTANIÉ LR 12 339 21,30%
Marianne SECK AND 10 772 18.59%
Mohamed EL AIYATE ECO 2 144 3.70%
Pierre DELARBOULAS REC 1 225 2,11%
Renée POTCHTOVIK EXG 630 1.09%
3rd constituency: Méru Creil
Advantage Sabatou RN
Alexandre Sabatou, outgoing RN deputy, takes the lead. He will be opposed to Amadou Ka, municipal councilor in Creil, representing the New Popular Front and who wants Jean-Luc Mélenchon to be the future Prime Minister.
Pascal Bois, the former Macronist MP, did not even manage to qualify for the second round because he did not pass the 12.5% mark for registered voters.
So a tight second round in perspective. If Amadou Ka fills up with all the votes that did not support the RN, he can win. But if Macronist or UDI voters drag their feet on July 7, it will be difficult to catch up with Sabatou. Advantage Sabatou RN.
Alexandre SABATOU RN 19,487 43.10%) – qualified
Amadou KA UG 14,149 31.29% – qualified
Pascal BOIS ENS 8,556 18.92%
Marie FERREIRA UDI 1 931 4.27%
Nadège LEGRIS DIV 573 1.27%
Roland SZPIRKO EXG 522 1,15%
4th constituency: Senlis Chantilly
Eric Woerth, Macronist, has not yet lost
Mohamed Assamti LFI failed to qualify for the second round, not obtaining 12.5% of registered voters. This may save Eric Woerth, the outgoing MP.
Grimpret RN comes first. He can hope to recover the 1.24% which went to the Zemmourian candidate Jean-Claude Casas. But that’s less than 42%.
Opposite, Eric Woerth must try to recover the maximum number of votes from Mohamed Assamti, LFI. This does not seem obvious. The voices of the PS, yes. The voices of environmentalists, perhaps too. Those of LFI would be more surprising. As for communist votes, we know how likely they are to be transferred to the RN.
Theoretically, Eric Woerth should be able to count on LR votes. But this should not be a complete transfer because many LRs still have the “betrayal” of Eric Woerth, who switched to Macronism, in their throats.
Likewise, the voices of the ecological center, of Sophie Reynal, could be reluctantly referred to the outgoing deputy.
The result will be close. Slight advantage all the same to the RN.
Mathieu GRIMPRET RN 25 093 40.23% – qualified
Eric WOERTH ENS 18 646 29.89% – qualified
Mohamed ASSAMTI AND 10 644 17.06%
Jean LEFEVRE LR 3 942 6,32%
Sophie REYNAL DVC 2 157 3,46%
Jean-Claude CASAS REC 772 1.24%
Caroline DASINI EXG 422 0.68%
Noël NGABISSIO ECO 422 0.68%
Augusto FERNANDES DSV 280 0.45%
5th constituency: Crépy Compiègne
RN Advantage
The second round pits the most centrist of the RN candidates, Frédéric-Pierre Vos, who recalls having campaigned for a long time in LR and having Philippe Seguin as a political model, against the most centrist of the candidates of the new popular front, Bertrand Brassens, who brought in Bernard Cazeneuve, the former Prime Minister, who is no longer in the PS, to support him.
Pierre Vatin LR is eliminated. It’s amazing. He is followed by Etienne Diot, who is both the ugly duckling of the municipal council of Compiègne where he is constantly vilified by the mayor Philippe Marini, and the raised standard of macronism. Despite this, he makes 15% against 18% for Pierre Vatin. And so, Diot has Vatin beaten. It is not certain that they will shake hands willingly again.
Will all the voters of Vatin and Diot vote for Brassens? If so, it’s a game won for Brassens. But we can doubt it because if the Mensheviks are dominated by the Bolsheviks, we can think that the moderate socialists will be swallowed up by the Melenchonists.
So it is difficult to see the friends of Pierre Vatin and Etienne Diot voting for Mélenchon’s ally.
Especially since Pierre Vatin was almost ready to flirt with the RN.
Advantage RN Vos.
Frédéric Pierre VOS RN 20,070 42.15% – qualified
Bertrand BRASSENS UG 10,491 22.03% – qualified
Pierre VATIN LR 8 427 17,70%
Etienne DIOT ENS 7 232 15.19%
Veronique ROGEZ DSV 509 1.07%
Hélène BECHERINI EXG 503 1.06%
Jean-Paul BOUCHER REC 379 0.80%
6th constituency: Compiègne Noyon
RN Advantage
In this constituency, Michel Guiniot RN came out on top with 48% against 23% for Daniel Leca UDI and 21% for Baptiste de Fresse de Monval, new popular front, ecologist. As soon as the results were known, the left-wing candidate announced that he was withdrawing for the UDI candidate to block the RN.
But, seriously, we don’t see the communists of Thourotte, Ribécourt or Longueil-Annel going to vote for the UDI Daniel Leca. It already doesn’t seem that they voted en masse for the ecological candidate… In Thourotte, a communist town whose irremovable mayor is the PC Patrice Carvalho, Michel Guiniot RN obtains 48% of the votes and Baptiste de Fresse de Monval only 27%. Ribécourt, even stronger. Guiniot at 56% and the ecologist at 20%.
As for LR voters, it is not certain that they vote for the UDI which is the ally of President Macron.
The 1.75% of Reconquête! should, on the other hand, not fail Michel Guiniot;
Advantage RN Guiniot.
Michel GUINIOT RN 23 396 47.87% – qualified
Daniel LECA UDI 11,207 22.93% – qualified
Baptiste DE FRESSE DE MONVAL UG 9 999 20.46% – qualified but withdraws for Leca
Nathalie CHARRUAU DVD 2,766 5.66%
Guy-Eric IMBERT REC 857 1,75%
Jean-Marc ISKIN EXG 648 1,33%
7th constituency: Clermont Creil
RN Advantage
The 7th constituency of Oise could be the only three-way race in Oise. Maxime Minot can even hope to win the second round. He needs to win back the votes of Ophélie Van Elsuwe Horizons. This leads to 30%, more than Loïc Pen PC.
Afterwards, he has to run a hell of a campaign. He has to attack David Magnier in a duel during a debate (or with a trowel, if there are three of them). In any case, he cannot abandon his voters to the impossible choice of choosing between Magnier RN and Pen PC. So he has to stay.
But the problem with a triangular is that, most often, the one who comes first in the first round stays in the lead in the second round.
Advantage RN Magnier.
David MAGNIER RN 19,769 40.43% – qualified
Loïc PEN UG 13,289 27.18% – qualified
Maxime MINOT LR 10,519 21.52% – qualified
Ophelia VAN ELSUWE ENS 4,006 8.19%
Agnès DINGIVAL EXG 615 1,26%
Florence ITALIANI REC 415 0,85%
Thomas MONGIRAUD DSV 278 0,57%
