LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN GRENOBLE: THE COLLAPSE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMP

The early legislative elections following the surprise dissolution respond to a particular context, with national issues which mobilized voters. But they also allow us to learn lessons about local power relations.

IN THE 1ST CIRCUMSTANCE, OLIVIER VÉRAN CHUTE

Grenoble straddles two constituencies. On the 1st (which includes more than half of the central city, several municipalities of Grésivaudan), the outgoing Deputy Olivier Véran (Macronist) obtained in 2022 in the 1st round 40.5% of the votes and the candidate of the united left 36.8%. Yesterday, the left rose to more than 40% and Olivier Véran fell to 33%, or -7 points compared to two years ago.

IN GRENOBLE, THE SHRINKAGE OF ITS BASE

In Grenoble, the former Minister and former future cosmetic doctor suffered the same fall and saw his base shrink further. He went from 32% in the first round in 2022 to 25%. The left went from 48 to 52%, which can be attributed to a better national mobilization of the urban electorate for fear of the RN coming to power.

RN SOARS UP, LR HOLDS STILL

But it is the RN that is breaking through the ceilings, going from 7% in the constituency in 2022 to more than 18% yesterday. Unprecedented in this territory. For her part, Nathalie Béranger (LR) is preserving the base of the Republicans (7%), even improving the party’s score compared to 2022, testimony despite very unfavorable national winds of the solidity of her establishment as a regional councilor, municipal councilor of Grenoble in Alain Carignon’s civil society group.

VÉRAN IN DANGER OF POLITICAL DEATH

With his score, the RN qualifies for the second round, which will therefore take the form of a three-way race. Consequently, Olivier Véran will not be able to benefit from a significant transfer of votes that allowed him to widen the gap in 2022… and this while he is 4,000 votes behind the left (he was 2,000 ahead last time). In a week, the former Minister could well also become… a former Member of Parliament.

IN THE 3RD CONSTITUENCY, EMILIE CHALAS IS FINALLY BEING DISTANCED

In the 3rd district (other half of Grenoble and the left bank of the Drac), we witnessed the return match between Elisa Martin (LFI) and Emilie Chalas (Renaissance). The first defeated the second in 2022, causing her to lose her mandate as Deputy. Between 2022 and 2024, Elisa Martin’s score remained stable (42%). But Emilie Chalas goes from almost 25% to 20% (from 23 to 18% in Grenoble). She who wanted to embody a third way between LFI and the RN ended up… left behind by both (the RN jumped from 11 to 22%!).

THE CHALAS PROBLEM

To summarize the Chalas problem: due to her lack of groundwork and implementation, she does less than her camp’s electoral base when she runs. And his camp being increasingly weak, the equation is not getting better. Thus in 2019 in the European elections, the Macronist party made 24% in Grenoble; the following year, it made 13% in the municipal elections. How much for the next ones, those of 2026, when Renaissance made 11% in the Europeans in Grenoble this year? The Chalas potential is very low. And his third successive defeat coming this Sunday will further weaken him.

THE NATIONAL CONTEXT ERASES THE WEIGHT OF BUSINESS

The most notable ultimately remains the maintenance of the score of Elisa Martin who does not seem to suffer unduly from the affair of hidden remuneration of elected officials in which she is implicated and which is causing a lot of noise. The national context and the label vote (many voters were looking for “popular front” ballots without even knowing who Elisa Martin is) saved it by hiding the affairs… but it is only temporary since the investigation judicial process has barely begun and promises twists and turns in the coming months. The Piolle/Martin shenanigans risk having a much greater impact on the municipal elections, a much more personal and 100% local election.

S. GEMMANI (GIROUETTE) CONFIRMS THAT WE DO NOT COPY AND PASTE VOICES

Another lesson, this time for Stéphane Gemmani (weathervane now PS member) who was a dissident candidate claiming to be social democracy (like Chalas..) on the 3rd circo: he collected 7% of the votes when Raphaël Glucksmann (PS- Place Publique) achieved 18% in the same sector three weeks ago. Failed bet for Gemmani: we cannot copy and paste the votes of the Europeans. Enough to give a cold sweat to Maxence Alloto who already saw himself in the lead on the left in the municipal elections on the basis of these same European elections which have already been denied! Landing will be difficult for some…

THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMP WILL NOT BRING THE ALTERNATION TO GRENOBLE

Overall, the same dynamics as those observed in the European elections are crystallizing. The left, even united, even with increases in participation, reaches a ceiling in Grenoble, around 50% of the votes (including social-democratic voters who will have the choice with one or more left-wing lists different from those of the Greens/LFI in 2026). The opposition therefore climbs to around 50% as well, with within it a clear collapse of the presidential bloc. This first round of the legislative elections confirms that those who come from and/or claim to be Macronists will not be able to bring about change in Grenoble… thereby broadening the scope of action of Alain Carignon’s group, which took the leadership of the opposition in 2020 and has continued to strengthen and broaden its base since then.

SUNDAY, A NEW PAGE OPENS

See you next Sunday for the rest. While Emilie Chalas’ defeat is not in doubt (the third after the 2020 municipal elections and the 2022 legislative elections…), the fate of Olivier Véran in an unfavorable ballot is not yet certain. Next Sunday evening, with the start of the long-distance race 20 months before the municipal elections, a new political page is about to open for Grenoble.