Last portion of the campaign before the French legislative elections

On Sunday, nearly 50 million French people will be called to the polls to elect the 577 deputies of the National Assembly as part of the first round of the legislative elections called by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9.

As the candidates began the final sprint of their campaign on Friday, the outcome of the vote remains unpredictable to the extent that the exercise could sound the death knell for President Macron’s centrist government in favor of the rising French far right.

On this last day of the campaign, all the polls gave a comfortable lead to the National Rally (far right) with around 37% of voting intentions against 29% for the left and 21% for the outgoing majority of President Marcon, relegated to third place. .

Since the gains made by the far-right coalition of the National Rally (RN), which won more than 30% of the vote in the European Parliament elections in early June, serious doubts have arisen in France about the re-election of a government led by outgoing Macronist Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

National Rally leads voting intentions

According to the latest polls, the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella, could significantly increase the number of its deputies and shake up the French political scene by taking control of the Legislative Assembly.

Deprived of a majority that he had in the National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron could see his government paralyzed by systematic obstruction from the far right in the lower house for the remainder of his second and final term.

If the National Rally’s gains translate into seats in the second round of the legislative elections, scheduled for July 7, Emmanuel Macron could find himself facing a far-right prime minister in the person of Jordan Bardella, aged 28.

Such a scenario would take the European Union’s second-largest economy into uncharted territory, as the two men’s political visions are diametrically opposed.

But nothing is over yet, because the two-round electoral system in force in France can hold surprises on one side or the other. This allows the opponents of the National Rally to believe that they can still turn the tide in the second round.

Worry and unknown

For several weeks, the possibility of seeing a far-right coalition take control of the National Assembly has raised many concerns among the French.

For example, if he becomes prime minister, Jordan Bardella, who has never governed, has promised that he will use his powers to prevent President Macron from continuing to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine. Marine Le Pen’s protégé claims to fear that this practice will lead France into direct confrontation with the Moscow government. However, France is currently one of the main supporters in Europe of the delivery of long-range weapons to Ukrainian forces engaged for more than two years in a bloody war with Russia.

On a more national level, the far-right doctrine, historically known to be xenophobic and anti-Semitic, also causes fears among French people of foreign origin.

Several of them have also said to themselves wounded et worried following the National Rally’s campaign proposal to ban dual nationals – people who have two nationalities – access to certain jobs extremely sensitivefor example in Defense or Homeland Security.

Even though I am Franco-Malian, I owe everything to France, I owe nothing to Mali apart from my family origins. Mali did not form me; I feel French above all.told theAFP blogger Samba Gassama, 37 years old.

Hearing French people reject me is hurtfulhe confided.

Olga Prokopieva, a Franco-Russian who arrived in France in 1995, president of the Russia-Libertés association, also feels much more French than Russian. I did all my studies and my life here, my daughter is also binational.

She judges unthinkable to be deprived of some of [ses] rights and possibilities. This is a very worrying step backwards.she says. Perhaps the shock will be terrible after the legislative elections, but for the moment I prefer not to believe it.

In January, the RN had already tabled a bill providing for the possibility of prohibiting access to jobs in public administrations and companies to French people with another nationality.

Around 3.3 million French people could be banned from accessing one of these sensitive jobsaccording to the union’s estimates CFDT.

The far right’s historical links with the anti-Semitic movement could also harm the election of a National Rally majority. in the second round although several Jewish voters recently told Radio-Canada that they could vote RN particularly due to the sympathy displayed by the left for the Palestinian movement Hamas.

On the left, the popularity of the RN in the European elections had the effect of a boost for the previously divided left-wing parties, which united under the banner of the New Popular Front to block the way for the far right by rallying behind promises of a better distribution of wealth, an increase in the minimum wage, reversing the very unpopular pension reform and reinstating the wealth tax.

In the center, President Macron and his Ensemble pour la République candidates fiercely insist that the left or right blocs are extreme and dangerous for the balance of power, cohesion and social peace in the country.

Remarkably, by calling these early legislative elections the day after his humiliating defeat in the European Parliament vote – in the hope of strengthening popular support for his government – ​​President Macron has shaken up the political landscape in his country and may have paved the way for the establishment of the first far-right government in France since the Nazi occupation 84 years ago.

More French women support the far right

This prospect no longer scares the French as much as before, and especially the French women, if we are to believe a recent opinion survey which gave 37% of voting intentions for the RN to women surveyed compared to 35% for men.

Among the opinions expressed, respondents will vote for the National Rally to feel more secure in their country, while others say they will do so to protect their purchasing power.

If France was once one of the countries where women strongly rejected the far right, this is no longer the case today, notes political science researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Anja Durovic , interviewed by Agence France-Presse. Those days are over, gender no longer has an impact on voting. RNshe assures.

French women are also now more likely to vote for the far right than their counterparts in other EU countries.

Today’s parity is a specificity French, observes the Austrian Stefanie Buzaniuk, of the Robert Schuman Foundation. In other countries [d’Europe]there is still a gap of gender to the extreme right.

The good results of the National Rally in France can be explained especially thanks to Marine Le Pen, who managed to feminize the discourse of RN compared to his father, rather sexistnote Mme Buzaniuk.

For his part, Jordan Bardella posed on Thursday as the protector of women, whom he claims to want to guarantee rights, particularly in resolving the immigration issue to better [les] protect in public space.

With just over 24 hours to go before the vote, French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to give clear voting instructions if a duel breaks out in the second round of the legislative elections between the left and the far-right National Rally (RN) party, presented as the big favourite in the election.

With information from Agence France-Presse and Associated Press