Three days before the first round of the early legislative elections, the opinion polls follow one another and are similar, illustrating an atmosphere of the end of the reign for the Macronist camp. With the National Rally (RN) and its allies leading the polls, reaching more than 35% of voting intentions, the French political landscape seems to be preparing for a major upheaval.
A historic participation
The expected turnout for these elections is historically high, around 65%. This mobilization, largely due to the far-right, shows that its supporters are not demobilizing, despite a release of racist speech observed in recent weeks. Strong participation is generally seen positively, but it has strategic consequences in the current context according to Arnaud Guvenatam.
A risk of absolute majority for the RN
With scores between 19 and 21%, the Macronist candidates, often in third position, can remain in the triangulars with 20% of the votes. This could indirectly favor the RN and its allies, increasing their chance of obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly for Arnaud Guvenatam. This possibility is seen as catastrophic by some observers, fearing a rise in inequalities, xenophobia, and discriminatory laws, plunging the country into a worrying atmosphere.
Call for Republican withdrawal
Arnaud Guvenatam, author of the press release, calls on the candidates of the presidential camp to withdraw in favor of the New Popular Front (NFP) in the event of a second round against the RN. He specifically addresses Ms. Khattabi and Messrs. Martin, Bordat, and Paris, asking them to take a public position on a possible Republican withdrawal. According to him, their political responsibility and moral duty must guide them to prevent an RN victory, emphasizing that moments of crisis reveal the character of political leaders.
Arnaud Guvenatam’s press release highlights the critical issues of these early legislative elections. While the RN and its allies seem to be in a position of strength, the Macronist camp is facing a major strategic dilemma. The candidates’ decision to remain or withdraw could well determine the immediate political future of France.
Press release of June 28, 2024:
Like an end-of-reign atmosphere in Macronie
Like an atmosphere of the end of a reign in macronia The opinion polls three days before the first round of the early legislative elections follow one another and look the same. The RN and its allies are in the lead with more than 35%, leaving the New Popular Front behind at less than 30% and the Macronist camp between 19 and 21%. The expected participation will be historically high, around 65%, illustrating that the far-right is not demobilizing a few days before the election. On the contrary, when we see the release of racist speech in recent weeks…
While the high turnout is to be welcomed, it de facto reduces the level of the score to be achieved to remain in three-way races. With 20% of the votes, most of the Macronist candidates coming in third place will be able to maintain their candidacies. In fact, they will play into the hands of the National Rally and its allies, allowing the latter to have an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
This prospect is catastrophic in many respects, whether in terms of individual freedoms, social breakdown, growing inequalities, xenophobia and discriminatory laws, not to mention the general atmosphere in the country which risks turning rancid brown. …
Thus, for the clarity of what awaits us, and to be at the level of the historical moment in which the country finds itself, I call on the candidates of the presidential camp to publicly tell our fellow citizens their position regarding a Republican withdrawal in the event of second round New Popular Front – National Rally.
So, Mrs. Khattabi, Messrs. Martin, Bordat, and Paris, will you make a commitment not to allow the RN to be in the majority in our department by withdrawing in favor of the candidates of the New Popular Front who will face the RN in the second round of the legislative elections? Your political responsibility and your moral duty must lead you to do so. It is in times of storms that characters are revealed. The mark you leave will belong only to you, because you will have the choice.
Arnaud Guvenatam
