the essential
Here are all the issues at stake in the legislative elections in Haute-Garonne, constituency by constituency. Surprises are expected.
952,016 voters, including 266,260 in Toulouse, are called to vote this Sunday for the first round of the legislative elections. Elimination of the candidates of the presidential majority, breakthrough of the National Rally, victory of the New Popular Front… Here are the stakes of this historic election, constituency by constituency.
1st constituency: Clouet favorite without surprise
There is practically no issue in constituency no. 1, where 62% of those registered live in Toulouse. Because the union of the left has a large majority of votes if we look at the European elections (46%). The outgoing LFI deputy, Hadrien Clouet, under the New Popular Front banner, is therefore in the favorite position against the representative of the presidential camp Elodie Hobet. The RN, however, came first in the communes of Cornebarrieu, Mondonville and Beauzelle in the European elections.
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Legislative elections in Haute-Garonne: Toulouse center and the first constituency, laboratory of the alliance of the left
2nd constituency: Stambach in pole position
The second constituency should not escape Anne Stambach-Terrenoir, outgoing MP, and the New Popular Front. This music teacher is not the most divisive of the rebellious candidates in Haute-Garonne, even if social-democratic voters in the constituency could be tempted to vote for Lagleize. Jean-Luc Lagleize, from the Modem, has returned to campaigning for the presidential majority. Known in the constituency after his 5-year mandate as MP (2017-2022), he will have to largely exceed the Macronist score in the European elections (13.5%) if he wants to hope. In 2022, the rural cantons voted for him, the urban cantons voted for Anne Stambach-Terrenoir (LFI-Nupes) in the second round. A second round to which the RN could access for the first time in this constituency, but it will still be necessary to repeat the score of the European elections (the extreme right totaled 27%). The RN, whose candidate is a parachute, has a thread tied to it: a Reconquest candidacy.
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2022 legislative elections in Haute-Garonne: the challenges of the 2nd constituency
3rd constituency: Vignon the last Macronist?
In the 3rd constituency, the outgoing Corinne Vignon (Renaissance) risks finding herself in a three-way race with the RN and the New Popular Front. Regaining her seat will not be easy in a divided constituency where the RN is pushing its horn in many villages, where the left is holding up well in the Toulouse neighborhoods and where the center often votes… An emblematic figure of the LR, Laurence Arribagé has been sentenced to ineligibility and will not be able to run. She is being replaced by a 23-year-old student.
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Corinne Vignon facing a double offensive from the left and the RN
4th constituency: Piquemal without surprise
There should be no surprises in constituency 4, exclusively in Toulouse with the districts of the left bank up to Mirail. Here, the left, all parties combined, obtained an absolute majority in the European elections. Will François Piquemal (LFI) be elected in the first round against the Renaissance candidate Margaux Pech, a Toulousaine who was responsible for communication for the Minister of Justice Eric Dupond-Moretti?
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2024 Legislative Elections in Haute-Garonne – 4th constituency: six candidates in the running for deputy
5th constituency: Portarrieu in danger
Since 2017, when he was elected under the colors of the Presidential Majority, Jean-François Portarrieu has never been so threatened in his seat as deputy of the 5th constituency of Haute-Garonne (north of Toulouse). The 3-way match that he is preparing to deliver to his two same adversaries for 7 years (in 2017 and 2022), Sylvie Espagnolle and Julien Leonardelli, is uncertain, and this from the first round on June 30. The election that is announced on lands not so contrasting as that (purchasing power and the unemployment rate are not catastrophic here) could in reality give rise to results much less stunning than one thinks. Because if Julien Leonardelli (RN) seems to have the wind in his sails (he was just elected the only European deputy on the evening of June 9), Sylvie Espagnolle, crowned with her qualification for the second round in 2022, can quite easily do it again, eliminate Leonardelli or even Portarrieu on Sunday, to play for victory on July 7.
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2024 legislative elections in Haute-Garonne – 5th constituency: a forced alliance in the second round to beat the RN?
The challenge for the outgoing Jean-François Portarrieu, apart from presenting himself as an anti-extremism candidate, is to present an honest assessment of 24 months, in line with his first mandate (2017-2022), he who continues to put put forward some key projects for the constituency, such as the construction of a 3rd bridge over the Garonne, the objective of which is to connect the aeronautical center and the MEETT of Aussonne, to the A 62 motorway at Eurocentre (Castelnau d’Estrétefonds/Saint-Jory).
6th district: last fight for Iborra
The main challenge will be to see if the votes in the legislative elections will be based on those of the last European elections, particularly in a city like Colomiers, a historic bastion of the left, which put the National Rally in the lead for the first time in history in a ballot. Moreover, for the outgoing MP Monique Iborra, the challenge will be to be able to place herself in front of the candidate of the New Popular Front, Arnaud Simion, to hope to be re-elected in the second round in a “republican surge” against the RN candidate.
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In the sixth, can Monique Iborra keep her seat?
7th constituency: the left with Bex
Only four candidates are in the running in the 7th constituency for this first round of the Legislative elections. But the duel between the National Rally, led by Gaëtan Inard, young parliamentary attaché of Eric Ciotti (LR), and the New Popular Front is shaping up to be a match at the top in this rural constituency where the RN swept the board during the European elections, scoring between 30 and more than 40%, in Muret and in the villages. If the Left arrived in the European elections in a scattered order since then, the LFI, PS, PC, and environmentalist alliances have tightened around the candidate of the New Popular Front and outgoing MP, Christophe Bex (LFI). However, these two blocs could be counterbalanced in a republican surge by the former Macronist MP for this same constituency of Muretain, Elisabeth Toutut-Picard (2017-2022), to slide towards a three-way race in the second round.
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Legislative elections in Haute-Garonne – 7th constituency: between the RN and the New Popular Front, the campaign match
8th constituency: Aviragnet favorite against the RN
Triangular or not, this is the main issue in the eighth constituency in Comminges, where the National Rally’s score was the highest in Haute-Garonne during the European elections. Everything will depend on the score obtained on Sunday by the candidate of the presidential majority, Céline Laurenties-Barrère. If the latter were to hold on to the second round, the outgoing MP Joël Aviragnet (New Popular Front) could find himself weakened against the National Rally. But the socialist MP, well-rooted in his territory and supported by the president of the Occitanie Region Carole Delga, still has every chance of being re-elected.
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2024 legislative elections in Haute-Garonne – 8th constituency: outgoing MP Joël Aviragnet receives the support of Raphaël Glucksmann
9th constituency: Arrighi favorite
Straddling the city and the countryside, the Haute-Garonne constituency recorded a significant increase in the National Rally during the European elections. Jordan Bardella came out on top with 21.41% and obtained twice as many votes as the RN candidate in the 2022 legislative elections on June 9. But on closer inspection, if we add up the number of votes for the left under the banner of the New Popular Front, the candidates obtained more than 48% of the votes. This could give the outgoing EELV MP Christine Arrighi, supported by many mayors, a chance of re-election. She will have to deal with the RN, but also a candidate from the presidential majority, the young Florian Delrieu who hopes to embody a third way and take advantage of the absence of an LR candidate.
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2024 legislative elections in Haute-Garonne: here are the candidates for the 9th constituency
10th constituency: Faure threatened
In Lauragais, the minister responsible for local authorities, Dominique Faure (Radical Party/Together), is in great difficulty. She was elected in 2022 before giving way a month later to her deputy, Laurent Esquenet-Goxes, when he entered the government. His seat is threatened by the PS mayor of Ayguevives, Jacques Oberti (New Popular Front), president of the association of mayors of Haute-Garonne and well established in the constituency.
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Legislative elections in Haute-Garonne. In Lauragais, the New Popular Front wants to bring down a minister
