Three days before the first round of historic legislative elections, Marine Le Pen has increased tension over possible cohabitation by reducing the role of head of the armed forces of the President of the Republic to a simple “honorary title”remarks implicitly assumed by Jordan Bardella but strongly denounced by Gabriel Attal and the New Popular Front.
In the event of a clear success for the far-right party, Marine Le Pen outlined, in an interview with Le Télégramme, a rough cohabitation: “Chief of the armed forces, for the president, it is an honorary title since it is the Prime Minister who holds the purse strings”. Consequence, according to her: “On Ukraine, the president will not be able to send troops”while Emmanuel Macron refused to exclude this option.
Marine Le Pen on June 24, 2024, in Paris / GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT / AFP
The probable presidential candidate of 2027 certainly seemed to qualify this statement a few hours later on “the reserved domain of the President of the Republic”. But she maintained that the head of government “through budgetary control the means of opposing” to sending troops abroad.
“It is the Prime Minister who decides the operating budget of the armies”insisted Jordan Bardella during a final televised debate with the socialist Olivier Faure, who represented the New Popular Front, and Gabriel Attal.
These statements made the latter jump. In the event of a victory for the RN and cohabitation, “There would be a form of dispute between the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic to know who has the role of head of the armies”he alarmed. “It is a message sent to world powers, to the whole world, which is a very serious message for the security of the French”.
Jordan Bardella, on the left, Olivier Faure, in the center and Gabriel Attal, on the right, during a debate on France 2 on June 27, 2024 / Dimitar DILKOFF / POOL/AFP
During the three previous cohabitations of the Fifth Republic, the president had retained broad powers in matters of international policy and defense, by virtue of “reserved domain”.
But this time, warns Olivier Faure, the far-right party wants “take everything”.
In a statement to AFP, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was convinced that “the next government will continue to fully support Ukraine” And this “whatever the political situation”.
Two million proxies
A new cohabitation, with Jordan Bardella in Matignon, involves obtaining an absolute majority for the RN in seats in the Assembly at the end of the second round on July 7.
For the moment, the extreme right is widely expected to lead the first round on Sunday, with 36% of voting intentions, according to an Ipsos-Fondation Jean-Jaurès-Cevipof-Institut Montaigne survey for Le Monde covering nearly 12,000 people.
According to this vast study, which does not provide projections in terms of seats, the left would gather 29% of the votes, the Macronist camp 19.5% and LR 8%.
Election posters before the legislative elections, June 25, 2024 in Bordeaux / Philippe LOPEZ / AFP
The ” weight “ you RN “is so high that not only can a relative majority be envisaged, but an absolute majority cannot be excluded, far from it.”underlines pollster Brice Teinturier (Ipsos) to AFP.
But the 577 elections, in each constituency, contain many unknowns, the equations being also expected to be profoundly disrupted between the two rounds depending on the retentions, withdrawals or even voting instructions.
A mere relative majority would open the prospect of a possible institutional blockage, reinforced by Jordan Bardella’s refusal to form a government if he does not have an absolute majority.
Interest in these early legislative elections is undeniable: two thirds of voters plan to vote on Sunday, according to Ifop-Fiducial, which would correspond to the best participation rate in this type of election since 1997.
Proof of this enthusiasm, the barrier of two million proxies was crossed on Wednesday evening and more than 410,000 French people abroad took part in the online vote, which closed this Thursday at noon (compared to 250,000 in 2022), a record.
Lively exchanges
The exchanges were often lively during the last televised debate.
Jordan Bardella, left, Olivier Faure, center, and Gabriel Attal, right, during a debate on France 2 on June 27, 2024 / Dimitar DILKOFF / POOL/AFP
Gabriel Attal accused his far-right rival of running for the legislative elections “a hundred candidates” having held “racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic remarks”which the leader of the RN rejected en bloc.
The Prime Minister also denounced the RN’s desire to “stigmatize 3.5 million dual-national French people” by prohibiting them from accessing certain jobs deemed “strategic”.
« Caricature »replied Mr. Bardella, believing that his opponent “has an interest in playing on fears” and assuring that he did not wish “not call into question dual nationality”.
Protesters against the far right in Saint-Denis, Seine-Saint-Denis, June 27, 2024 / Zakaria ABDELKAFI / AFP
Asked who could access Matignon in the event of victory, Olivier Faure assured that it would be necessary “a quiet force, a force that knows where it is going”. “I will therefore be the Prime Minister of all French people to initiate the recovery of the country”Jordan Bardella immediately retorted.
Meanwhile, demonstrations to block the National Rally have again taken place in several major cities in France, bringing together several thousand people, according to an AFP count.
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