Trump vs Macron: can France still weigh against the United States

The two presidents Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump know each other well. This can be an asset, but not necessarily. Among the leaders of the major countries of the European Union, the French leader is the only one to have had the experience of the billionaire installed in the Oval Office. The head of state had even played, at least initially, on personal ties with his American counterpart, trying to seduce him. This led to great declarations of friendship, and the White House host was full of praise for the “ dear Emmanuel “. The results were very meager, and François Hollande sneered at the “seductarism” of his successor at the Élysée. But it was worth a try, especially since Donald Trump had a terrible relationship with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as with British Prime Minister Theresa May.

Emmanuel Macron could thus pose as leader by default of the international liberal order and a certain idea of ​​the transatlantic link, to try to influence his American counterpart and limit the damage of a presidency which already promised to be so disruptive. unpredictable and potentially destructive to alliances and treaties. This did not prevent the Trump administration's withdrawals from the Paris climate agreement or the Vienna agreement, which aimed to establish international control over Iran's nuclear program.

The culmination of this relationship was Emmanuel Macron's official visit to Washington in April 2018. An oak shoot, taken from a battlefield in Aisne where the Marines distinguished themselves during the First World War, was planted on the White House lawn. A few months later, the shrub died. A very bad omen.

Emmanuel Macron seems tempted to relaunch his bet, especially since he knows how Trump works with his infinite vanity and his oversized ego. First rule: don't skimp on flattery. From the morning of November 6, he sent his congratulations to the winner even before the official results were announced. “Ready to work together as we have been able to do for four years”affirmed the French president, while emphasizing that this will be done “with your convictions and with mine”. A way of recalling the obvious differences.

Their relationships will be much more difficult than then. The second Trump presidency arrives in an international context dominated by Russian aggression in Ukraine, the risks of conflagration in the Middle East and the rise of Chinese ambitions. The balance of power between the two men is no longer the same. Donald Trump is much stronger politically than he was then. His election in 2016 may have seemed like nothing more than an accident. This time, a majority of Americans, including in the popular vote and particularly among young people, chose him for what he says and what he embodies.

He has a team at his disposal, made up of collaborators chosen above all for their presumed unfailing loyalty, and he controls Congress, at least until the next midterm elections in two years. In contrast, Emmanuel Macron, worn out by seven years in power, is at the head of a country heavily weighed down by its debt. He is politically weakened, including within the European Union, even if his recurring calls for strategic autonomy for Europe are now taken up by many of the Twenty-Seven.

Looking back at what relations between Paris and Washington were like during the first Trump presidency is full of lessons. Relations between the two presidents began in May 2017 with a very long and virile handshake during a NATO summit, where each of the two wanted to show their strength. At the time, Trump was a novice in politics, particularly in foreign policy, and so was Emmanuel Macron, although he had had brief ministerial experience and had worked alongside François Hollande at the Élysée. The American president likes winnersand in this respect, the new French president, who had won the presidential election as an outsider, had everything to please him.

The head of state, for his part, has always shown a certain fascination for strong politicians. For two years, relations were rather good, with a visit with great fanfare to Paris in July 2017 by the American president: dinner at the Eiffel Tower restaurant for the two presidential couples, visit to Napoleon's tomb and tribune of honor for the military parade. Donald Trump loved it and even thought about introducing such a parade across the Atlantic. Yet, beyond these glamorous images, nothing came of these overplayed personal connections.

The last coup was at the G7 in Biarritz to try to organize a surprise meeting between the American president and the Iranian foreign minister, in order to save the nuclear agreement. It was brilliant and daring, but it was a failure. Then, the relationship deteriorated, with Donald Trump multiplying mocking tweets and jokes against his counterpart.

Forced into relative withdrawal on the domestic political scene, the head of state has all the availability and powers to invest in foreign policy. But can he really carry weight with Washington? Paris has few friends in the new administration that Donald Trump is putting in place at Mar-a-Lago, particularly in the team in charge of diplomacy and security policy. The influential Republican senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, son of Cuban emigrants, will occupy the post of Secretary of State, that is to say Minister of Foreign Affairs. Former special forces and Florida elected to the House of Representatives, Mike Waltz will become national security advisor. They are both self-confident hawks, convinced that the main threat today comes from China, and they fully support Taiwan.

But they believe that the Europeans are the first concerned by Ukraine and that they must pay more for their defense. They nevertheless recognize that a victory, even symbolic, for Putin in Ukraine would undermine the credibility of the United States vis-à-vis Beijing. In any case, it is a card on which Paris and, more generally, the Europeans can try to play. On condition, however, that they are able to present credible options for upwardly reevaluating their military aid to kyiv and of proposing what security guarantees could be offered to Ukraine, failing that, at least in the short or medium term. , full membership in NATO, which neither the United States nor, moreover, Germany want.

Even more difficult for Paris will be relations with Washington regarding the Middle East. Donald Trump has continued to proclaim his support for Israel and the strategy followed by Benjamin Netanyahu in response to the massacres of October 7. The appointment as ambassador to Jerusalem of Mike Huckabee, a former evangelist pastor convinced of Israel's historic rights over Judea and Samaria, and that of Elise Stefanik, elected from New York, as ambassador to the UN, which she denounces as “anti-Semitic” are the illustration of this.

The new administration will, in all probability, try to relaunch its regional normalization plan with the Abraham Accords by integrating Saudi Arabia. The voices calling for a two-state political solution, such as France in particular, will always be more inaudible, especially since the central question will always be more clearly that of Iran, considered as the main danger both by Donald Trump and by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Donald Trump already has his privileged interlocutors within the European Union, first and foremost the very Putinian Hungarian national-populist Viktor Orban. Italian post-fascist Giorgia Meloni, who governs a much more powerful member state, could take this role from her, especially as she has excellent relations with Elon Musk.

Whether he tries again to make his own partition heard as in 2017 or whether he poses as a representative of part of the Twenty-Seven most committed to supporting Ukraine, like Poland, Emmanuel Macron does not doesn't have much time to prepare a credible offer to an American president who thinks above all in transactional terms.

This is especially true since Europe will also have to choose a positioning while the Trump administration is preparing for a trade war with China, of which Europe could be a collateral victim, flooded by Chinese exports which will not be able to find a market. outlets across the Atlantic.