A disruption is expected in Hauts-de-France. It will rain heavily during the night from Monday 18 to Tuesday 19 November 2024, particularly in certain areas of Pas-de-Calais. Thunderstorms and strong gusts of wind are also expected. Possible overflows from the sea are to be expected. We take stock.
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After a weekend without precipitation, rain is expected in Hauts-de-France during the night of November 17 to 18, 2024. “It’s not this episode that’s going to be the rainiest,” warns Dominique Poissonnier, meteorologist at Météo France.
The rain will fall more heavily in the afternoon of Monday November 18, 2024 in Picardy and Normandy, relatively sparing the Nord and Pas-de-Calais. But the precipitation will gradually reach the two departments during the night, with increased intensity. Here are the elements we have available.
During the night of Monday 18 to Tuesday 19 November 2024, after midnight, “the wind will shift to the southwest and the rains will move towards Pas-de-Calais, particularly on the heights of Boulonnais and Artois”explains the meteorologist. Rain to which must be added a risk of storms, well identified in these areas during the night, from 1 a.m. until approximately 8 a.m.
At 1 a.m., the sea will be high, causing “risks of overflows on the Côte d’Opale”, adds Dominique Poissonnier. Finally, wind gusts of 70 to 80 km/h are expected, with local gusts of up to 100 km/h on the capes.
With this accumulation of precipitation, the storms, the wind and the possible overflowing of the sea, it is not going to be a very restful night.
Dominique Poissonnier, meteorologist Météo FranceConcerning the night of November 18 to 19, 2024
During this night, the expected rain accumulations will be “important”analyzes the meteorologist from Météo France: 10 to 20 millimeters everywhere in Pas-de-Calais and up to 40 mm locally in a few hours, i.e. “the equivalent of around fifteen days of precipitation”.
Forecasts which make residents of Pas-de-Calais fear overflows, one year after the historic floods of November 2023 and January 2024. Fears present since the beginning of autumn when the soils are wetter than the year last and that the level of water tables is relatively high in the department.
Read also ► Floods. Rain, groundwater, rivers, a high-risk winter in Pas-de-Calais?
Météo France does not forecast the risks of flooding but the expected precipitation. However, Dominique Poissonnier recalls the situation that Pas-de-Calais faced last year. “We must not forget that in November 2023, we recorded these accumulations of rain regularly every two days, and for several weeks.” Before adding. “When it happens occasionally, there is less risk.”
During the day of Tuesday November 19, 2024, the rainy zone will gradually shift towards the south of Aisne. After the disturbance passes, the first flakes could fall. “In the afternoon of Tuesday, while the sea is still warm, we will have coastal showers which will overflow onto the land and it is not impossible to see a little snow falling. explains Dominique Poissonnier.
Wednesday November 20, 2024, a few snowflakes are expected along the Belgian border in the afternoon. But the meteorologist warns: “Nothing will hold because the accumulations are not high enough and the soils are too hot.”
