European farmers met on Wednesday November 13 from 11 a.m. on the Robert-Schuman roundabout in Brussels, in the heart of the European district. The Commission and Council buildings are located there, and the Parliament is just a stone's throw away. The protesters' message is clear: they don't want the agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia).
The same European Commission, on the same Schuman roundabout, is preparing to welcome, a few hours later (at 5 p.m.), the French Prime Minister Michel Barnier. He has neither tractor nor signs, but his opinion is no different: this text, which the European executive hopes to sign by the end of the year, goes against the interests of his country and of the whole of Europe…
The Commission defends an “ambitious, balanced and comprehensive” agreement
Since 2019, the date of the “political compromise” with the five Mercosur countries, the European Commission has defended the ratification of this free trade agreement which intends, among other things, to remove certain customs duties on trade between the two blocs. Defending an agreement “ambitious, balanced and comprehensive”, she has continued to highlight the benefits for the European economy.
Once in force, the text “would increase by 15 billion euros” the gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU and “11.4 billion euros that of the Mercosur countries”further assured this Wednesday Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, chief negotiator on the European side, who also points out Europe's trade deficit vis-à-vis Mercosur. In 2022, EU exports to Mercosur amounted to €55.8 billion, compared to €63.1 billion in the opposite direction.
“Opportunities should multiply once markets open,” enthuses a source involved in the negotiations. One of his colleagues insists on“necessary momentum towards this agreement”especially since “the political panorama has changed, particularly with the war in Ukraine”and even more recently with the election of Donald Trump in the United States. “The geopolitical importance of the agreement will increase, and it will rhyme with real benefits in terms of economic security for industrial and agricultural products,” he adds.
France is standing up against the agreement
Except that Paris doesn't see it that way. “Michel Barnier will remind Ursula von der Leyen of his total opposition to the Mercosur agreement”, explained Monday the Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty, Annie Genevard. France hopes to bring together a blocking minority within the Council (i.e. four states) to block the text. “What we need to obtain is enough to exercise our veto at European level” by rallying “as many countries as possible” of the EU, she said.
Today, Germany and Spain are pushing hard to ratify the treaty, while Poland and Austria have regularly voiced their opposition. It remains to be seen whether Italy, Ireland or the Netherlands can tip the scales.
Even within the French borders in any case, the subject seems relatively consensual. On Tuesday, more than 600 French deputies, from several parliamentary groups, sent a letter to the President of the European Commission to oppose this agreement, considered threatening for French agriculture and inconsistent from an environmental point of view. In particular, they want guarantees for “not increase imported deforestation in the European Union, bring the agreement into line with the Paris Climate Agreement and introduce mirror measures in health and environmental matters”. Conditions currently unmet.
On Wednesday, forty organizations ranging from Friends of the Earth to Oxfam to Greenpeace this time sent a letter to Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Minister demanding more “firmness » to France vis-à-vis the European executive. “The institutions still have a negotiating mandate on behalf of the 27 member states and none of them (…) never demanded either its abandonment or its re-examination”, they observe, fearing in particular a scenario of « splitting » text. Understand: the separation of the commercial aspect of the text from others, such as the chapters on sustainable development.
Separate the commercial aspect from the other aspects?
On the European executive side, we deny this, and we maintain that the suspension of trade in the event of violations of the Paris Agreement is a prerequisite. A stronger commitment from Mercosur countries to the fight against deforestation is also expected. Opposite, Mercosur demands from Brussels “more room for maneuver in public procurement, in order to be able to grant preferences to national industry in certain strategic sectors”, summarizes one source.
During the hearings of the future members of the next “college” of the European Commission (which ended on Tuesday, November 12), the subject came up regularly. “There will be no signing of this agreement against the interests of Europeans, in particular farmers,” promised Stéphane Séjourné, who should become executive vice-president in charge of prosperity and industrial strategy.
The Luxembourger Christophe Hansen, proposed to be commissioner for agriculture, remained more evasive: he “don’t know” if the negotiations of the agreement «will be completed or not”he indicated. As for the Slovakian Maros Sefcovic, proposed to become commissioner responsible for trade, he noted that negotiations « techniques » are in progress, explaining, in yet another pirouette, “hope that this agreement can be concluded on a very fair basis”.
