“I understand that both blocs are very interested in concluding the parts of the agreement still under discussion,” assured Argentine Secretary for International Economic Relations Marcelo Cima. “We have two key dates […] : the G20 summit in November in Rio de Janeiro, and the Mercosur summit in December this year. We are therefore going to work on the realization of this major project”, underlined for his part the head of the Spanish government Pedro Sanchez.
Blocking minority
However, it will be difficult for the European Commission, which negotiates on behalf of the 27, to reach an agreement next week in Rio. “It seems complicated,” admitted a European source in Brussels. For France, “Mercosur, as it stands, is not an acceptable treaty,” recalled French President Emmanuel Macron. “France says no and France is not alone in this refusal of Mercosur. What we need to obtain is enough to exercise our veto at the European level” by bringing together “as many countries” as possible from the EU, French Minister of Agriculture Annie Genevard explained on Monday.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will try to assert Paris' position during a trip to Brussels on Wednesday, where he will meet the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. To block the decision, France must bring together a blocking minority within the Council, which brings together EU member states.
However, nothing is less certain. Germany and Spain are pushing with all their weight. However, if Poland or Austria have regularly expressed their opposition, this is insufficient, because a minimum of four states are needed to constitute a blocking minority. However, some in Brussels want to believe it, judging that countries like Italy, Ireland or the Netherlands can tip the scales.
No certainty
The agreement must also be ratified by the European Parliament. Again, no certainty. Opposition to the Mercosur agreement, shared by the overwhelming majority of French MEPs, all political tendencies combined, is in the minority, according to one of them. For others, this is not the case, because MEPs from the left and a large part of the right are opposed to the agreement. European farmers, many of them from France, are demonstrating in Brussels on Wednesday to make their voices heard.
“If the ratification of the treaty were to take place against the advice of France, it would open a breach in the confidence that the French have in Europe,” warned Sophie Primas, French minister responsible for foreign trade. Paris therefore wants to believe that its interests will be taken into account, even if the pressure continues to mount. “If we do not conclude an agreement with them (the Mercosur countries), this vacuum will be filled by China,” warned the future head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas on Tuesday.
“Destabilize the entire industry”
Once in force, it would “increase the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) by 15 billion euros and “that of the Mercosur countries by 11.4 billion euros,” assured Trade Commissioner Valdis. Dombrovskis, chief negotiator on the European side. This free trade treaty, negotiated for 25 years before a first agreement concluded in 2019 but never ratified, notably provides for a quota for Latin American beef imports of some 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes per year.
