The Bank of France indicated on Tuesday in its monthly economic survey that it anticipated a gross domestic product “roughly unchanged” in the fourth quarter compared to the summer, due in particular to the “backlash” post-Olympic and Paralympic Games.
For the Bank of France, gross domestic product will be “roughly unchanged” in the fourth quarter compared to the summer. This is notably due to the post-Olympic and Paralympic “backlash”.
Activity should record a “slightly positive progression” between October and December, but this increase would be offset by the “backlash” induced by the end of the Olympics, “estimated at -0.2 point of GDP”, specified the institution in its monthly economic survey, without quantifying the level of growth expected in the fourth quarter.
Growth of 1.1% anticipated for all of 2024
The Olympics fueled growth in the third quarter (+0.4%) by supporting the services sector. The activity benefited in particular from ticketing revenues and sales of audiovisual broadcasting rights.
For the whole of 2024, the Banque de France anticipates growth of 1.1%, like the government and the National Institute of Statistics (Insee), which expects zero growth during the last quarter.
In October, aeronautics and agri-food in progress, but the automobile sector suffering
According to the approximately 8,500 companies surveyed between October 29 and November 6 as part of the economic survey, activity increased in October in industry, supported by aeronautics and the agri-food industry.
On the other hand, the automobile sector continued to suffer, especially “the production of electric cars, which are suffering from Chinese competition and a drop in demand for these models”, underlined the Bank of France.
Concern is growing among employees of industrial sites
Industrial order books are still considered “degraded”, except in aeronautics.
In commercial services, activity slowed down in October while in construction, structural work benefited from the resumption of projects postponed by the Olympics.
In November, the Banque de France estimated that activity should change “little” in industry and services, and that it would decline in construction.
Price standardization
It notes, however, that the uncertainty indicator, based on company comments, remains “relatively high in all sectors”, with companies mentioning “the national political situation and the impact of tax debates, as well as the international environment “, notably the American elections which had not yet taken place at the time of the investigation.
Concerning prices, normalization has been confirmed, including in services, and “inflation should therefore remain under control”, according to the French central bank.
Recruitment difficulties continued to decline, with 31% of companies saying they encountered them in October compared to 35% in September.
