Lhe European Union is facing a double polarization which is testing its internal cohesion and its position on the international scene. On the one hand, societal and political polarization is weakening our democracies, exacerbated by recent crises: the Covid-19 pandemic, wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and economic tensions (energy prices, inflation). On the other hand, geopolitical polarization, amplified by competition between the United States and China, is reshaping global balances, often to the detriment of European industrial and strategic interests.
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What the European elections reveal is not so much a “crisis of democracy” as an expression of it, at a time when European citizens are worried about European disengagement and are contesting policies or the insufficiency of policies to address this. The confirmed progression of the extreme right in France and in Europe actually reflects a “ performance crisis” of the governments in place, facing the issues that primarily concern European citizens: the cost of living, climate change, immigration and the return of war to the continent.
In France, the triple deficit (commercial, public and financial), the fall in productivity and the relocation of companies to the United States for reasons of lower energy costs and market attractiveness linked to Inflation Reduction Act [promulgué en août 2022] confirm among the French the feeling of poor management and an uncontrolled headlong rush.
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On these subjects, the European Union (EU) is often seen as a problem rather than a solution. An excessively regulatory, even punitive EU in terms of ecological transition, through a green pact which exacerbates territorial divides and our dependence on China. An EU that is too lax on migration policy. An EU that is too naive and under-equipped on a geopolitical and geoeconomic level, thus reinforcing our double dependence and vulnerability towards the United States and China. The answer to these challenges actually lies in the implementation of the Versailles agenda [fixé lors de la présidence française du Conseil de l’UE en 2022] on European sovereignty, which is nevertheless struggling to take root in France.
New East-West divide
Several major trends are emerging independently of the results of the early legislative elections: the crisis of Franco-German leadership will deepen and accelerate the restructuring of political balances in Europe; the French political scene will continue its transformation through the normalization of the National Rally (RN) and will weaken France’s place in Europe; the European agenda will undergo adjustments to respond to the concerns expressed during these elections.
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