Bad shadow on the picture for Joe Biden's record as Americans go to the polls. According to data released this Tuesday by the Commerce Department, the deficit in goods and services with the rest of the world reached 84.4 billion dollars in September. The statistic marks an increase of 19.2% compared to August and above all a much more marked progression than anticipated by analysts who instead predicted a deficit of 74 billion, according to the consensus published by Briefing.com.
« The anticipation by companies of the dockers' strike most likely explains this.estimated Ryan Sweet, economist for Oxford Economics, interviewed by AFP. OWe should observe an opposite effect in the coming months. For me, the increase in the deficit is not a cause for concern ».
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Consumption still sustained
Over one year, the American trade deficit increased to 11.8% in September, or $69.6 billion more, the Commerce Department also said. This situation results from a more marked increase in imports than exports, a sign that American household consumption remains strong.
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« An important component is to be found on the side of domestic demand “, reminded AFP Rubeela Farroqi, chief economist for HFE, ” which was already visible in the household spending data during the GDP publications for the third quarter. We will see if this continues ».
Car imports
In September, exports of goods fell by $3.2 billion, those of services being almost stable compared to the previous month. On the goods side, the decline concerns almost all of the country's main industries, while services experienced a slight decline in maintenance and repair, offset by an equivalent increase in government goods and services as well as transport.
For imports, the increase primarily concerns goods, which increased by $10.9 billion. Conversely, services fell slightly, by $600 million. Americans overall purchased more imported vehicles, pharmaceutical products, computers and semiconductors but traveled less abroad.
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For goods, the geographic distribution of the trade deficit remains generally unchanged, the largest still being linked to trade with China, at $26.9 billion, up significantly over one month. The European Union (EU) still remains in second position, with an American trade deficit of 23.8 billion dollars, once again increasing quite markedly, and which is again concentrated on the same four countries: Germany, France, Ireland and Italy.
The surplus, however, is widening in trade with the Netherlands. Finally, the deficits with Mexico and Vietnam are still among the largest outside China and the EU, and are also up compared to the previous month.
An argument for Donald Trump
The increase in the deficit could turn in favor of Donald Trump in the presidential election. The Republican based his campaign on rebalancing the trade balance. Although it decreased by 18% over one year, in 2023, the imbalance between American exports and imports still stood at 773 billion euros.
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An unacceptable situation for the billionaire, who accuses China of being largely responsible. The former Middle Kingdom has nevertheless gone from the equivalent of more than half of the American external deficit in 2016 to 25% today. The Republican now plans to completely rebalance the scales. Chinese imports represented $426 billion in 2023, making Beijing the second largest importing country to the United States, after Mexico. On the contrary, Washington exported $148 billion worth of goods to China last year.
To reverse the trend, the former President promised to impose a universal customs duty of 10% or 20% on all products not manufactured in the United States, and even 60% on goods coming from China. “The higher the customs duties, the more likely a company is to establish itself in the United States » and to produce locally, he justified on October 16.
(With AFP)
