This is one of his highly anticipated texts to decarbonize France. The Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher presented on Monday, November 4, the third national low carbon strategy (SNBC), a roadmap which sets France's objectives, sector by sector, for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. greenhouse for the period 2024-2028. A trajectory intended to meet European objectives and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, as France committed to with the Paris Agreement. This is what you need to remember.
► A long-awaited roadmap
Prepared on the basis of the work of the State Secretariat for Ecological Planning, the text was presented a few days after a National Plan for adaptation to climate change and at the same time as the multi-annual energy programming (PPE). These three roadmaps, provided for by law, were initially expected for July 1, 2023.
While their publication had been repeatedly postponed, the High Council for the Climate (HCC) had urged the government, in the spring and then more recently, to adopt these texts to give ” visibility “ to stakeholders in the different sectors concerned.
They will be in public consultation until mid-December and will be the subject of an opinion by the High Council for the Climate and the National Commission for Public Debate. They will then be published by decree, without passage by the National Assembly.
► A 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030
“The publication of the third edition of the SNBC should allow us to achieve the objective of – 50% of our gross greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2030”indicated Agnès Pannier-Runacher. The target is therefore higher than that of -40% set by the previous plan, in order to align with the new European objectives. Illustrating the scale of the task, the ministry specifies that this new target involves “reduce our emissions by 5% each year between 2022 and 2030, compared to a 2% annual reduction on average from 2017 to 2022”.
The objective is in gross emissions, that is to say it does not subtract emissions absorbed by carbon sinks such as forests or soils (what we call “net emissions”). The government is not, for the moment, proposing an objective in this sense. An alignment with the European objective of -55% net emissions in 2030 is no longer mentioned.
The cause is a massive weakening of carbon sinks, due to global warming and disease. This weakening explains why the objectives of the previous SNBC were narrowly missed. “The -55% net is an objective that we are retaining, but is a carbon sink subject which is intended to be clarified subsequently”clarified the office of Agnès Pannier Runacher to our colleagues at Natura Sciences. Arbitrations are therefore still awaited on this subject, as well as on the figures which will be retained in terms of emissions linked to our imports, not taken into account in this strategy.
► Massive effort in transport and construction
The largest emitting sector, transport (34% of emissions), is heavily involved. Its emissions must decrease by almost a third between 2023 and 2030. An ambitious objective for a sector whose emissions have stagnated since 1990… To achieve this, France is aiming for a sales objective of two thirds of electric cars by 2030. and 15% of electric cars in the country's rolling stock by the end of the decade, compared to 2.2% at the start of 2024. It also forecasts a sharp increase in the employment of public transport (+ 25%) and a doubling of freight and cycle paths.
As for the building sector (16% of emissions), it will have to reduce its emissions by 44% in total compared to 2022. Due to the very high carbon intensity of fuel oil, the replacement of fuel oil boilers (including the installation has been banned since mid-2022) will be “prioritized from 2030”. The document also provides for the replacement by a carbon-free heating system of 75% of oil boilers by 2030, or around 300,000 homes per year, the replacement of 20 to 25% of gas boilers by 2030, or around 350 000 homes per year.
► All sectors involved
The second highest emitting sector, agriculture, will have to reduce its emissions by 9% by 2030, compared to 2022. This currently represents 20% of French emissions, including 59% linked to livestock farming. , 26% to inputs used in crops and 14% to vehicles.
It is in particular on the question of fertilizers that the government wants to focus: the roadmap targets 21% of large crops in organic farming in 2030 (and 50% of “low input” systems) and more broadly a reduction of one quarter of the use of mineral nitrogen fertilizers. On the livestock side, France is aiming for a stabilization of the herd (in decline for decades) but an increase in the share of agroecological systems (45% of dairy cattle in a pasture system compared to 28% today, for example) .
As for industry, it will have to reduce its emissions by 37% through electrification, the use of biomass or carbon-free hydrogen.
Objectives that are difficult to maintain?
Will we be able to meet these objectives?, several environmental NGOs have already expressed concern. By nature, these roadmaps do not specify all the means – whether measures or financial means – to achieve this. But the ability to stay the course is worrying at a time of budget cuts in the sectors concerned.
While the plan provides for the doubling of cycle paths, the investments necessary for the deployment of the bicycle plan, which provided for the construction of 100,000 kilometers of cycle paths by 2030, were, for example, not included in the draft law. finances 2025. Another sign of contradiction, the Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand announced on the same day of the presentation of the SNBC that France would ask Brussels not to apply penalties to manufacturers late in the transition to electric ….
