It is much more likely that France will experience a warmer quarter than normal this year.
The Indian summer could well continue in France. In any case, this is what the latest bulletin published by Météo-France predicts concerning seasonal trends for the next three months. These could be warmer than last year, meteorologists estimated.
Screenshot – MétéoFrance.fr
According to Météo-France, there is a 50% chance that the next three months will be subject to a temperature higher than seasonal values. The hypothesis of temperatures within the norms or that of levels lower than the standards only carries a 25% probability, which announces a higher probability of having a milder autumn than usual.
As for precipitation, “Wet conditions are more likely around Scandinavia and dry conditions are more likely from North Africa to the southern Mediterranean basin.”announced Météo-France which places France in the middle of these two scenarios, with a probability of 33% for rainy weather over these three months.
Screenshot – MétéoFrance
The meteorological institute emphasizes the “uncertainty” of these trends which are in no way forecasts, emphasizing that the reliability percentages are quite low or shared equally between the different hypotheses. Furthermore, MétéoFrance estimates that a quarter can be, for example, hotter than average and occasionally experience episodes significantly lower than the temperatures expected for that season.
“This bulletin does not make it possible to forecast the details of weather conditions for the coming months day by day or even week by week. It only attempts to determine the trends expected on average over the quarter”explains Météo-France in its bulletin.
More reliable temperature trends
Also, “the probabilities never reach 100% because there is always a possibility, even a very slight one, that an originally minority scenario ends up taking over”.
However, Météo-France specifies that the trends are more reliable “for temperatures than for precipitation”. It is therefore very likely that our warmest coats will stay in the closet for the next quarter.
France
