Switzerland faces Germany in the quarter-final

The Helvetii have everything to defeat the Germans in the quarter-final of the World Cup, this Thursday afternoon in Ostrava (4:20 p.m.). A defeat would be difficult to forgive.

klaus zaugg, prague

Here is Switzerland again against Germany in the quarter-final of the World Cup. Exactly like in 1992, 2021 and 2023. The Nati won in Prague in 1992 (3-1) and lost in Riga in 2021 (2-3 ap) and 2023 (1-3).

However, there is something different compared to the confrontations of 1992, 2021 and 2023: in case of defeat, there will be no real excuses on Thursday. The reason is simple: the Nati is nominally (i.e. on paper) better for the first time – and there is much to suggest that the Germans have not noticed this yet.

For the sake of simplification, we can reduce this somewhat controversial analysis to two names: that of the Swiss Roman Josi (33 years old) and that of the German Moritz Seider (23 years old). The first is present at the World Cup this year. The second is not.

In 2021 and 2023, Josi was the defense minister the Helvetii simply could not do without. Seider is probably the best defender in Germany since Udo Kiessling and Uli Hiemer. Drafted in the first round in 2019, integrated into the World Championship All-star team in 2021 and 2023, NHL rookie of the year in 2022 (Calder Trophy), he is Germany’s answer to Roman Josi. He is as good as the Swiss defensively, even if he is not quite so offensively.

If we want to compare the styles, we can estimate that Josi is the Roger Federer of hockey, while Seider is the Boris Becker. When he plays, Germany is different. This is an invincible team for Switzerland. If he does not play, as is the case for the 2024 World Cup, Switzerland is the favorite. In 2021, 2022 and 2023, Roman Josi was not in the World Championship team. With Josi, our team is also different: it is capable of beating Germany. Or rather: she must.

To demand a victory against Germany is of course to demonstrate a lot of arrogance and incredible pride. But if Roman Josi is there (and not Moritz Seider), if the best nominal team in the recent history of the World Cup is available, if the semi-final is the objective stated by the leaders, then demand a victory against a Germany without Moritz Seider becomes realistic.

Our team is not only the best on paper, it is also the most balanced in modern times. Roman Josi thus praises the serenity, patience and cohesion of the group. Kevin Fiala even talks about a big family. This romanticism is that of a great team.

In the event of defeat – which can never be ruled out – the analysis must always take into account the way in which it was conceded. Were the Swiss “deceived” by the referee? Were they outclassed or did they have a lot of bad luck? This would at least constitute mitigating circumstances to explain a failure against Germany.

On the other hand, if the goalkeeper were to miss his match this Thursday, there would hardly be any mitigating circumstances. Because Patrick Fischer would then have chosen the wrong goalkeeper – like in 2023 with Robert Mayer instead of Leonardo Genoni. With Genoni and Akira Schmid, the coach has two goalkeepers who have so far stopped more than 92% of pucks. Akira Schmid was good against Finland. But probably not phenomenal enough to supplant Leonardo Genoni for the quarter-finals.

Leonardo Genoni in the Swiss goal.Image: keystone

Against Germany, the Nati will have to simplify their game. Exactly as they did when opening the score against Finland on Tuesday. Romain Loeffel pushed the puck towards the Finnish goal from his own zone. Harri Säteri then bounced it off the cane of magician Kevin Fiala, involved in all three goals for the national team. The magic of Fiala and the desire to do simple and unspectacular things, to work and clear the puck like Loeffel: this is the recipe for success against a German team not really helped by its goalkeepers. Neither Philipp Grubauer nor Mathias Niederberger have achieved a save rate of at least 90%, essential for a victory against Switzerland in a World Championship.

Another difference compared to 2021 and 2023: the Swiss are better, but at the same time more humble. Everything suggests that the Germans could underestimate the Nati for the first time. They have not yet taken stock of the fact that in Prague, we saw a completely different Swiss team than in 2021 and 2023.