the essential
This Thursday, October 17, 2024, during the afternoon, a rain-storm system is expected to approach the department on orange alert from the west, shifting very slowly towards the east.
During its passage, particularly intense precipitation is expected and could give 20 to 40 millimeters across the department and 50 to 60 locally, and this on soils that are still particularly wet.
Cells should ease by early evening, but rain will linger until morning Friday.
Risk of hail
This stormy phenomenon, potentially quite violent, should be accompanied, beyond the heavy rain intensities, by a significant risk of medium hail and a risk of strong to very strong wind gusts, potentially between 80 and 100 km /h.
In total for the episode, the Aveyron prefecture expects accumulations of around 50 to 70 mm in the department on orange alert, locally 70 to 100 mm in north-west Aveyron.
Risk of significant flooding of the Tarn
At the same time, the hydrological services predict a significant flood of the Tarn in the next 24 hours in the municipalities of Aguessac, Compeyre, La Cresse, La Roque-Sainte-Marguerite, Millau, Mostuéjouls, Nant, Paulhe, Peyreleau, Rivière-sur-Tarn , Saint-André-de-Vézines, Saint-Jean-du-Bruel and Veyreau. The Mediterranean episode will continue until the night of Thursday October 17 to Friday October 18 with 2 to 3 peaks in intensity.
Currently, this episode is already causing excesses in the Montbrun and Florac sectors. After a temporary decrease in the afternoon of this Wednesday, a reactivation of the rains is underway. River levels have started to rise again and this will continue throughout the day of Thursday, October 17 until reaching their maximums in the evening of Thursday or even the night of Friday, October 18.
In addition to the Tarn and the Tarnon, on Thursday evening, the first overflows could also concern the Dourbie in the Nant sector and to a lesser extent, the Jonte in the Meyrueis sector. In the Montbrun sector, these reactions should cause widespread overflows.
