Under the Mediterranean sun, the presentation of the future director of the Banque de France in Nîmes (from November 18), Patrick Saulnier, who heads that of Poitiers, took place. Handover after three years of departmental management for Nathalie Ravet who will soon join the Paris-Bastille branch. An update on the economic and societal situation before leaving the south.
The decline in inflation is confirmed
The Banque de France is pleased to have won the battle against inflation in 2024 with a rate of +2.2% in August which is approaching the regulatory threshold of 2% thanks to action on interest rates itself. if services resist, impacted by the increase in salaries ((+4% in 2023, +2.4% in 2024 and 2025 forecasts +3%). In 2025, we should be below 2%. “We were between 8 and 10% between 2022 and 2023″ recalls the departmental director”. The tariff shield is bringing its results in France despite growth in Germany slowing down the euro zone. “year, either after October 17 or a little later”, adds Nathalie Ravet A decline in inflation which should be amplified with the fall in the cost of energy even if “new taxes” could affect the amount. of the decrease which would go from 15% to 9%.
How do households perceive the evolution of their purchasing power?
Almost all households report an inflation of the basket, especially food, which represents 20% of the overall budget and the nest egg is increasing, higher than before
Covid) in the face of uncertainties and the geo-political context. Low incomes are more impacted. “With growth of 0.4% in the 3rd quarter, the Olympics effect played a
role with the purchase of places, it should be reduced to 0 in the 4th quarter,” specifies Nathalie Ravet. Export market shares are increasing. The unemployment rate is falling with the return to employment, creation and apprenticeship, rising to 7.5% in France, 8.9% in Occitanie and 9.8% for the department. “A more positive phase than expected,” specifies the director. A decline is still expected in 2026 with 7.3% in France with greater growth. The growth in wages per capita and the positive effect of the drop in rates contribute to considering private investment.
Summary of the study of the balance sheets
The volume of activity remains growing in Occitanie with interest rates revised downwards and inflation decreasing, the industrial sector is boosted by
aeronautics but the director insists not to compare the departments. Profitability is preserved despite being in decline. Note, +0.9% in bank financing to regional companies but this has changed little over one year. In Gard, investment loans reach 93% and are in decline in the short term with – 6%. Forecasts generally respected, the Banque de France studies are based on a monthly survey of 800 companies in addition to figures from INSEE. The director notes a less significant increase in collective failures in the Gard than in the region (92% among VSEs, 47% are less than 5 years old, 4% less than 30 years old and 13% are individual businesses) .
We can wonder if there will be a gap or are we in the process of cleaning up the market?
The industry is resilient with growth in production and a slight increase in the number of employees, but it has less recourse to temporary workers and cash flow is deteriorating. The prices of raw materials are rising again and are having an impact on their margins while sales prices are stable. Merchant services are progressing at a slow pace, cash flow is tight, especially among hoteliers and transporters. Prices have increased slightly.
In construction, the trend is positive with difficulties in the structural work while the second work will experience difficulties in 2025-26. Public works are growing with activity driven by major projects (Toulouse metro, LGV, motorway).
Forecast
We can expect lower profitability in 2024, stability in investments and an increase in exports, market services are revising
decline for 30%, construction will be approximately 27% below forecasts but with some favorable notes. They had to review the quotes in the face of competition and
Order books offer little visibility except for large public works projects. The climate is anxiety-provoking given the difficulty of forming a government, the geo-political context, the economy, budgetary management… The Banque de France encourages companies and individuals in financial fragility to contact the branch .
Key figures from the Banque de France in Gard
From 01/2022 to 06/2024, the Banque de France carried out 9,613 financial studies for company listings, conducted 1,149 rating interviews, received 457 requests from the TPE correspondent, handled 82 credit mediations, carried out 104 investigations economic situation. It helped 3,308 families with over-indebtedness, received 7,950 at counters, made 769 designations of credit institutions for the right to an account, and had 13,131 national requests for the right of access to files. A number 3414 for telephone reception. 370 people were trained in ticket authentication. It established partnerships with National Education as part of the financial education week, for 282 teachers, 2,054 young people and 669 social workers trained.
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