While Hurricane Kirk is currently located over the Atlantic Ocean in category 2, it is currently starting to move towards the northeast and then head towards France tomorrow. This will decrease in intensity and lose its hurricane characteristics as it rushes into the disturbed flow of our mid-latitudes. Despite everything, Hurricane Kirk carries with it a significant amount of energy and precipitable water. The ex-hurricane will approach France with a very low low pressure minimum.
Until today, great uncertainty reigned over the possible trajectory of ex-Hurricane Kirk, which could head towards Ireland as well as the Bay of Biscay. Now, all weather models, including ensemble models, are converging on a trajectory of the depression positioning itself Wednesday morning off Galicia then Wednesday evening over west-central France and finally Thursday morning over Belgium.
This trajectory leads to several lessons on the impact of the depression on Brittany:
- Brittany should be removed from the risk of gale to storm despite temporarily strong north to northwest winds in southern Brittany, particularly along the Atlantic coast and on the Loire Atlantique
- Significant amounts of rain are likely over part of Morbihan, the south of Ille-et-Vilaine and Loire Atlantique, potentially 50 to 80 mm in these areas between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. The accumulations would be more moderate over the rest of the region.
The exact trajectory of Kirk and its interaction with the disturbed westerly current remain to be refined in the coming hours. Shifts in the position of precipitation, their intensity and also the winds are still possible by 100 to 200 km towards the north or south. Check our upcoming regional weather reports each day for more details.
