Temporary immigration | The shock

Three elements have changed the situation – and marked a change in perception – regarding temporary immigration: a glaring lack of new housing starts, the inflationary surge of the last two years and the publication of data on non-permanent residents (NPR). by Statistics Canada.

In April, Justin Trudeau admitted that his government’s immigration policies were partly to blame for the housing crisis. “Over the past few years, we have seen a massive spike in temporary immigration, whether temporary foreign workers or international students in particular, which have increased at a rate much higher than the Canada has been able to absorb,” he said during a housing announcement in Nova Scotia.

But what probably crystallized the debate were the figures. Canada did not have statistics on the number of non-permanent residents (NPR) living in the territory. There was data on permit holders, on the gap between temporary workers who entered and those who left, but we did not know how many there were in total. When Statistics Canada released this new data on September 27, 2023, it was a shock.

Soon after, studies showed that such massive immigration could also have negative effects on the economy.

Current demographic growth “seems extreme compared to the absorptive capacity of the economy,” wrote economists Stéfane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme, in a National Bank study published on January 15.

A perverse effect of too much immigration is that it pushes down GDP per capita, the level of wealth, because too many people share the same pie, which does not grow as quickly.

The admission of immigrants into low-paid jobs lowers average incomes and GDP per capita, added Matthew Doyle, Mikal Skuterud and Christopher Worswick, authors of a study by CD Howe published in July. According to them, the objective of economic immigration to Canada should be to use it to increase the GDP per capita of the entire population, including newcomers.