“By car”, but will the passenger train start in Alberta?

The Alberta government launched a new study last week to introduce passenger trains, including a line between Edmonton and Calgary. The cry of “in the car” launched by Prime Minister Danielle Smith, however, has an air of déjà vu and rail specialists hesitate between optimism and skepticism.

It must be said that studies on the establishment of a high-speed line between Calgary and Edmonton date back to the mid-1980s. The last journey of a passenger train between the two cities, the Dayliner, had barely finished before the Alberta was already considering replacing it with a faster train.

In 1986, 2004, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2020: reports on the establishment of passenger rail lines follow one another, but without being followed by a shovelful of earth.

Studies are much cheaper than carrying out the project itself. So sometimes, there is a certain political game that takes placeexplains Pierre Barrieau, lecturer in transportation planning at the University of Montreal and consultant at the firm Gris Orange.

He is convinced that the corridor between Calgary and Edmonton is one of the most conducive to the establishment of a high-speed line in Canada. A strip of land is already reserved for rail transport.

A study carried out in 2014 (New window) (in English) however advised the government against committing to the project citing the absence of a sufficient population to make the railway profitable.

Since then, the province’s population has increased by 17% and is expected to exceed 5 million in 2027.

Pierre Barrieau also believes that measuring the number of potential passengers is a vain attempt. The State has failed in its role, in Canada, to offer an alternative to the car. […] The day the State gives an alternative, you will be pleasantly surprised to see how people will changehe says.

Another study, in 2008 (New window) (in English), estimated the benefits for passengers of a train between Calgary and Edmonton from $4.6 billion to $33.4 billion depending on the speed of the train.

However, the report was not made public until a year later, as Alberta’s economy was contracting.

Political will as the last holdfast

: “we jump””,”text”:”The problem we have here is really a lack of decision-making by the State. Previous studies were already sufficient to say: “we jump””}}”>The problem we have here is really a lack of decision-making by the State. Previous studies were already sufficient to say: “we jump”believes Pierre Barrieau.

It’s not a question of money, it’s not a question of ability, it’s a question of will.

This political will must not only be that of the government of the day, adds Ryan Katz-Rosene, associate professor at the University of Ottawa. Alberta’s rail plan takes place over 15 years.

It happened in Ontario. The high-speed train plan had been approved by Kathleen Wynne’s government. The Ford government came along and decided not to support the projecthe recalls.

Political change has a huge influence on infrastructure spending, as do austerity economic policies.

According to Ryan Katz-Rosene, rail projects have always failed because of the aversion of governments to spending billions of dollars on infrastructure. In Alberta particularly, he notes that the government of the moment has always preferred to delegate the bulk of the work to the private sector and focus on support in consultations and regulations.

Signs of change

The professor, however, sees encouraging signs in Danielle Smith’s latest announcement. The master plan includes the establishment of a state-owned company to develop infrastructure and manage railway activities.

This is a break from recent decadesnotes Ryan Katz-Rosene. : “It’s going to cost money and we’re prepared to do it”.”,”text”:”It was surprising to hear Premier Smith say: “It’s going to cost money and we are ready to do it”.”}}”>It was surprising to hear Premier Smith say, “It’s going to cost money and we’re prepared to do it.”

The scale of the master plan is also a positive point, adds Pierre Barrieau. The provincial announcement does not focus on the connection between Calgary and Edmonton, but also includes the possibility of commuter trains and rail transport to the Rockies.

Usually, when we dissect the network, it’s a good sign because the analysis is thorough.

It’s more expensive, it takes longer and it’s more likely to failargues Ryan Katz-Rosene.

The professor therefore remains in the camp of skeptics. We’ve seen the same type of ads over and over again across the country. […] I will believe it when the trains are built.