Trans Mountain: the (oil) stain on the Trudeau government’s record

The contradiction, a few hours apart, could not be more striking.

On June 17, 2019, the Liberals had a motion adopted on the National climate emergencyrecognizing that climate change is a real and urgent crisis, caused by human activity.

Less than 24 hours later, they gave the green light to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project.

The dissonance was not lost on environmental activist Greta Thunberg. One second they’re declaring a climate emergency, and the next second they’re saying yes to pipeline expansion. It is shamefulshe wrote, shattering the environmentalist veneer of the liberal government.

Justin Trudeau prides himself on being the first to put forward a concrete plan to achieve the targets for reducing Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. The Liberals signed the Paris agreement, imposed a price on carbon, raised the bar on environmental assessments and subsidized green technologies with billions.

The purchase of the pipeline appears to be a big (oil) stain on their environmental record.

It wasn’t just Greta Thunberg who brought this contradiction under their noses. More progressive voters did, too. This question gave the Liberals a lot of trouble during the 2019 election campaign, after which they lost their majority in the Commons.

As the pipeline begins operations on Wednesday, Justin Trudeau’s troops face new political risks linked to the pipeline. The oil stain may spread.

Discount sale

The expansion of the pipeline purchased by Ottawa in 2018 from the Texan company Kinder Morgan triples existing capacity to 890,000 barrels per day on a 1,150 kilometer route between Edmonton and Burnaby, near Vancouver.

When the Liberals purchased the pipeline, the expansion project was at a dead end and animosity between Alberta and British Columbia had reached a peak.

The project aimed to find new markets for Canadian oil so that companies could obtain a better price for their resource.

However, in the meantime, it is Canadian taxpayers who have footed the bill.

Over the years, the costs of expanding the pipeline have multiplied, from an initial bill of $7.4 billion to more than $34 billion, so much so that it seems obvious to many experts that the government – ​​which has always assured that it wants to sell the pipeline at the end of the expansion – will have to sell its oil pipeline at a discount.

According to political scientist Frédéric Boily, the question consists above all of knowing what the extent of the loss will be. while being happy to see the pipeline in service– to still criticize the government for its mismanagement.”,”text”:”If it is too important, that will allow the conservatives – while being happy to see the pipeline in service – to still criticize the government for its mismanagement.”}}”>If it is too important, it will allow the Conservatives – while happy to see the pipeline in service – to still criticize the government for its mismanagement.

If the federal government were to suffer billions of dollars in losses before the next election, it would reinforce the narrative put forward by their conservative opponents that the Liberals are wasting public money.

Environmental risks

The oil and gas sector remains today the largest Source of carbon emissions. GHG in Canada. In 2021, 28% of emissions GHG produced in the country came from this sector, far ahead of transport (22%). Since 1990, crude oil production has more than doubled in Canada.

And the growth continues. Oil production in Alberta is breaking records, reaching 3.95 million barrels per day.

It is difficult to assess precisely what effect the pipeline’s operation will have on production, but it could provide an additional boost to an already thriving industry. When tabling her budget, the Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, also pointed out that the Bank of Canada estimates % to our GDP in the second quarter”,”text”:”that this project will add 0.25% to our GDP in the second quarter”}}”>that this project will add 0.25% to our GDP in the second trimester.

However, in December, the Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, announced a cap on emissions from the sector, which should come into force in 2026. How will the marked increase in production that we are witnessing be able to be align with the emissions cap? Mystery.

Furthermore, the risk of an oil spill – whether along the route or if it is transported by boat after being transported in the pipeline – is never zero. If a catastrophe were to strike, the reputation of the federal Liberals could not escape unscathed.

Nothing to gain

At the time of the final approval of the project in 2019, the then Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, made a prediction.

october[2019], I’m sure this will be the end of the Trans Mountain project. He will find an excuse to cancel, to block this project”,”text”:”If Justin Trudeau is re-elected on October 7[2019], I’m sure this will be the end of the Trans Mountain project. He will find an excuse to cancel, to block this project”}}”>If Justin Trudeau is re-elected on October 7 [2019], I’m sure this will be the end of the Trans Mountain project. He will find an excuse to cancel, to block this projecthe said at a press briefing.

His premonition proved false. The Liberals were indeed re-elected and completed the project, even if it took longer and more expensive than expected. It even earned a THANKS polite from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to Justin Trudeau last month.

However, the Liberals would be ill-advised to put this under the noses of the Conservatives.

I don’t have the impression that they could boast of having carried out this project successfully. Yes, we will say it, but making it an electoral issue would be much riskiersays Frédéric Boily.

For fear of alienating his more progressive natural electorate, Justin Trudeau will have difficulty trying to score points in Alberta by taking credit for the construction of the oil pipeline.

The irony is that the great paradox of the Trudeau government will not have allowed it to score points on either the left or the right.