could the catastrophe depicted in the film happen?

The fires that hit Los Angeles in early 2025 are a powerful reminder: climate change has terrifying consequences. While fires, floods and even drought continue to make headlines, The day after is more relevant than ever. This blockbuster by Roland Emmerich released in 2004 looks at the consequences of climate change. It tells how the arrival of an ice age ravages the world with tornadoes, torrential rains or floods and extreme temperatures approaching -100°C.

No fires therefore, but real disasters caused by the disappearance of the Gulf Stream, a warm current. But is the plot of the disaster film realistic? The film’s producer, Mark Gordon, explained to the outlet that while they had “taken the liberty of anticipating the coming of a New Ice Age, the theory that global warming could lead to sudden climatic upheavals attracts more and more attention.

Our climate is in fact linked to the circulation of currents, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), responsible for the warm Gulf Stream current. This allows Western Europe in particular to have less cold winters than in North America. According to a study published in 2021, climate scientist Niklas Boers revealed that it was “increasingly likely” that the AMOC would collapse. It would thus be approaching its point of no return, due to the rapid melting of the Arctic ice, which would bring cold water to the current. Two scientists from the University of Copenhagen assure in the journal Nature Communications (July 25, 2023) that the collapse of the AMOC could occur between 2025 and 2095. But this conclusion is far from unanimous within the community scientist.

Temperature drops over several decades

As a result, we could find freezing temperatures in North America and Europe for hundreds or even thousands of years according to Futurism. But climatologist Niklas Boers turns out to be more measured than what the film shows: the consequences of the collapse of the Gulf Stream would occur “over several decades” (while it happens over several weeks in The day after) and North America would not become “as frigid as the movie suggests”.

This is what Mark Gordon clarified when the film was released: “when scientists talk about ‘abrupt’ climate change, they are referring to a period of five to ten years, and not a few weeks, as in the film. But we do not claim to be 100% scientific, nor to cover the issue in just two hours. We only wanted to offer the viewer a super-spectacle which could, possibly, enlighten them on a problem which. concerns us all.” If the plot of Day after seems indeed exaggerated, that does not mean that it will never come true…

Synopsis – Nobody believed him. And yet, climatologist Jack Hall predicted it: an ice age is about to invade the globe, bringing with it gigantic devastation: tornadoes, torrential rains, floods, hail and polar temperatures. In this nightmarish environment, a man sets off into a devastated New York in search of his son…