Globalization has never been stronger than in 2024

According to a study by the Stern School of Business at New York University and the shipping company DHL if we consider the four fundamental parameters which are the circulation of money, people, information and goods, the level of globalization would reach its historic maximum in 2024.

Contrary to popular belief, the coronavirus pandemic, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and the geopolitical reconfiguration of the Middle East that followed have in fact not contributed to slowing down international trade and globalization.

• The year 2023 was not marked by a significant decline in overall commercial activity: 21% of the total value of products and services was the subject of international exchanges last year, compared to 22% in 2022 — a relatively stable figure .
• If DHL’s “global connectivity” index decreased slightly in 2023 and 2024, this decline is cyclical and can be explained by the slowdown in global growth which contributes to reducing the share of trade in global GDP – and therefore the index.
• The decline in flows between China and the United States – down by around a quarter since 2016 – as well as the decoupling of Europe from Russia have not weakened trade.
• If Sino-American tensions cause a slowdown in international information flows – which had continued to strengthen over the last two decades – the report also estimates that “non-aligned” countries – neither close allies of the United States nor China — occupy a growing place in world trade. Their share increased from 42% in 2016 to 47% in 2024, with notable gains for the United Arab Emirates, India, Vietnam, Brazil and Mexico, which have become connection economies bridging geopolitical rivalries.

The main international shipowners continue to invest massively to purchase new transport capacities, indicating stable confidence in the maintenance of international flows: the equivalent of 8.4 million containers is currently on order worldwide, i.e. the highest level highest since at least 2000 . However, the majority of trade (around three-quarters) on a global scale still takes place within countries.

Does the return of Trump and his customs policy risk compromising the globalization of flows?

• After repeating numerous times during his campaign that he would impose customs tariffs on all goods entering American territory, the president-elect’s entourage has been signaling for several days that the tariffs targeted by Trump should ultimately only concern goods deemed “essential for national or economic security” .
• During preliminary discussions, Trump’s advisers reportedly raised the possibility of applying additional customs tariffs on steel, iron, aluminum, copper, batteries, rare earths as well as certain pharmaceutical products.
• According to a model developed by Bloomberg (taking into account universal customs tariffs), most countries will be able to offset part of the losses caused by these tariffs by exporting more to the rest of the world . The United States’ share of world trade would fall from 20 to 9%.

Global trade has continued to grow since the second half of the 20th century: its volume increased by 4,500% between 1950 and 2022, and its value increased nearly 400 times. . Around 80% of global trade today passes by sea, representing $14 trillion per year.