Over the past few weeks, the BTC market has absorbed a significant amount of selling pressure. Where does it come from? It is now time to take stock of the sales behavior expressed in recent months on BTC.
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Following the recent correction, the price of bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized in a range between $90,000 and $100,000, crossed from the top yesterday at the opening of the American markets.
It is now time to take stock of the sales behavior expressed over the past few months, in order to shed light on the sales dynamics that influenced the price of BTC at the end of 2024.
Figure 1: Daily price of BTC
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Long-term expenses
Following a rapid rise above $100,000 in December, the price of BTC began its first correction since crossing its former ATH. Compared to the corrections of the year 2024, the latter seems rather moderate, with a magnitude of -15%, similar to March 2024.
As we will see below, this fall appears very small given the volumes of spending released between October and December.
Figure 2: BTC corrections compared to its ATH
Long-term investors (LTH) are a particularly resilient and patient group of participants, waiting for late bull market periods and episodes of high upside volatility to increase their selling pressure.
This behavior explains the fall in the total volume of BTC held by LTHs, down by more than a million BTC between November 2024 and January 2025.
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It is interesting to note that the selling pressure expressed recently exceeds that occurring between December 2023 and March 2024. This is explained in particular by higher prices, increasing the incentive for profit-taking on LTH.
Figure 3: Total LTH supply and expenditure indicator
Of the million BTC spent since last November, long-term investors have sent nearly 220,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, with an average spending of 2,200 BTC per day.
The majority of these expenses took place between November and December, between $80,000 and $100,000.
Figure 4: BTC volumes in favor of LTH deposited on exchanges
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Short-Term Spending and Bitcoin Miners
Short-term investors (STH) are a less moderate and patient group of participants, realizing losses and profits earlier and more frequently in response to market volatility or political and economic news.
The latter have been particularly active in recent months, sending nearly 1.5 million BTC in profit to exchanges, with an average spend of 17,000 BTC per day.
The majority of these expenses took place between October and December, between $70,000 and $100,000.
Although it may seem surprising to see short-term sales volumes exceed long-term spending, this can be explained by the erratic, sometimes compulsive, behavior of speculators, who will buy or sell repeatedly instead of adopt long-term HODLing behavior
Figure 5 : BTC volumes in favor of STH deposited on exchanges
Tracking the movement of UTXOs associated with STH and LTH indicates that the majority of spending expressed over the past month comes from the 2024 range, explaining the strong redistribution of BTC into the $90,000 – $100,000 range, which has could temporarily slow down the rise in price.
Figure 6: Difference over 30 days in the supply of STH and LTH
Miners form a group of participants with variable spending behaviors, regularly increasing their sales in bull market contexts but also during the most painful phases of bear markets. Some also have to frequently sell part of their rewards to cover their CAPEX and OPEX costs.
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Between November 2023 and January 2025, miners spent almost 30,000 BTC, making them the group with the lowest selling pressure in the market over the past 2 years.
Figure 7: Total miner supply (Patoshi excluded)
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Summary of this on-chain analysis on Bitcoin
In finerecent data indicates that strong selling pressure, valued at over 1 million BTC, was expressed by various groups of participants between the months of October 2024 and January 2025.
Spot exchanges notably received nearly 1.6 million BTC from short-term investors and more than 200,000 BTC from long-term investors.
Despite sustained pressure on spot markets, the BTC price recorded its weakest correction since March 2024, highlighting the resilience and robustness of the current market.
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Sources – Figures 1 to 7: Glassnode
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On-chain analyst, fervent fighter against information asymmetry.
My goal is to inform everyone about the state of Bitcoin (as an asset and a distributed network) through the lens of on-chain analysis.
Prof. Chain
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