Lando Norris regained ground on Max Verstappen in Mexico, which can give him hope of becoming world champion at the end of the four remaining races. But there are many conditions to meet.
So maybe? By gaining ten points from Max Verstappen in Mexico, Lando Norris gave himself a small chance of becoming Formula 1 world champion on December 8. It's both a little and a lot, but there are now 47 points between the Dutch leader and the British challenger. With four races remaining, this gap very slightly reopens the door to a thrilling outcome in Abu Dhabi. Probably not in the conditions of 2021, where Lewis Hamilton defended his crown while being tied on points with Max Verstappen. But with a new push, we could get closer.
The first of the last four meetings is scheduled for November 1 to 3 in Brazil for the São Paulo Grand Prix on the Interlagos circuit (race Sunday at 6 p.m.). Then after a two-week break, the three remaining races of the season will follow: the Las Vegas GP on November 23, the Qatar GP on December 1 and therefore the Abu Dhabi GP on December 8.
For Norris, winning is not enough
Mathematically, Lando Norris needs to score strictly 11 points more than Max Verstappen every weekend. With the sprints planned in Brazil and Qatar, while counting the best laps in Sunday's race, 120 points are up for grabs.
There are not many scenarios that allow you to score more than 11 points than an opponent in a race. In 1st place, Norris would need Verstappen to do no better than 4th. In 2nd place, it's already more difficult: the three-time world champion would have to be 7th at best. And it's better not to count on the point for the best lap: Red Bull will be on the lookout to recover it, but other teams will also be on the lookout for the manufacturers' classification. In Austin, Alpine, the penultimate team on the grid, used Esteban Ocon, 18th at the finish line, to prevent Williams from increasing their lead.
Ultimately, Lando Norris must put all the chances on his side and then hope for a rout, or even an abandonment, from Max Verstappen.
The points scale
· Sprint: 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
· Race: 25, 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1 (+1 for fastest lap if ranked in the top 10).
Norris must also get rid of the Ferraris
But is a final victory down to the wire really possible? The answer may be yes assuming that Lando Norris' MCL38 is clearly faster than the RB20, and if Oscar Piastri and McLaren provide exemplary support. Opposite, Max Verstappen is still not able to rely on his teammate Sergio Pérez. Which exposes him to strategic moves in the race. Another element favorable to the English outsider: none of the last four circuits is particularly favorable to Red Bull. The Austrian team could even be clearly dominated in Las Vegas (urban circuit) and in Qatar (fast corners).
But two reasons also explain why the predictions continue to lean in favor of Max Verstappen. The first: the Dutchman, although at the limit of the regulations, remains the best behind the wheel with his ability to get the most out of his car, his excellent starts and his self-sacrifice in battles. Where his rival, even if he fought back, seems more fragile. Second reason: McLaren and Red Bull are not alone. Lando Norris also has to face competition from Mercedes, still in ambush, and from Ferrari, which has found a revival since the arrival of a new front wing. To the point of perhaps having the best car of the moment.
The Italian threat is all the greater because of the Scuderia's situation in the constructors' standings: 2nd with only 29 points behind. Ultimately, it is not Max Verstappen who could deprive Lando Norris of the title, but Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc.
