(BFM Bourse) – The American markets will react on Tuesday to the entry into office of Donald Trump, invested this Monday, January 20 for a second term in the White House. Historically, the S&P 500 moves little when the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq tend to decline during presidential inaugurations.
Investors will closely monitor the stock markets on Tuesday, January 21, the day after Donald Trump's inauguration for his second term in the White House. This while Wall Street is closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
Will American stocks be able to continue their rise after the swearing in of the 47th President of the United States?
Historically, the S&P 500 Index has on average not performed well on Inauguration Day, or the day after if the Inauguration falls on a holiday. However, the last three inaugurations have all resulted in increases.
A win for Trump's first day in office in 2017
Trump's first inauguration in 2017 resulted in a 0.34% gain for the index. In 2021, the S&P 500 rose 1.39% on the day Joe Biden was sworn in, the largest increase in the index since Ronald Reagan's second inauguration in 1985.
Over the longer term, the index has seen an average decline of 0.27%, based on data dating back to 1949. On average, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.24% during inaugurations. The younger, tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is down 0.35% on average.
The following infographic shows the percentage changes for presidential inaugurations since that of President Harry Truman.
-* Closed market, market reaction on the first trading day after the inauguration
**The S&P 500 was launched in March 1957, but S&P Dow Jones Indices provides historical data for dates before its launch.
NB: Performances for the inauguration of Gerald Ford, who was sworn in on August 9, 1974 after the resignation of Richard Nixon, are not included Performances for the first swearing-in of Lyndon B. Johnson, which took place on November 22, 1963, after the death of John Fitzgerald Kennedy, are not included.
(With Reuters)
S. S. – ©2025 BFM Bourse
