Oil weighed down by a possible reprieve on customs duties

Oil weighed down by a possible reprieve on customs duties
Oil weighed down by a possible reprieve on customs duties

Around 5:15 p.m., Brent posted a loss of 1.31% to $79.73 and WTI a decline of 1.64% to $76.60.

Oil prices are down on Monday, weighed down by press reports according to which Donald Trump will not introduce new customs duties immediately after his inauguration, despite uncertainties over American sanctions against Russia.

Around 4:15 p.m. GMT (5:15 p.m. in ), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, dropped 1.31% to $79.73.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in February, fell 1.64% to $76.60.

Black gold accelerated its fall after the publication of an article in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, according to which Donald Trump would refrain from imposing new customs duties from the first day of his second term.

“Immediate tariffs would have affected 3 million barrels per day of imports from Canada to the United States, which could have led to a shortage (in the country) or, at a minimum, an increase in prices,” says Ole Hansen of Saxobank.

The drop in the oil price is linked to “a relief to see this short-term threat reduced”, according to the analyst.

The sanctions recently taken by the Biden administration against Russia are also at the heart of the market’s questions, “some analysts believe that he (Donald Trump, editor’s note) could relax certain restrictions in order to promote a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine”, explains Antonio Di Giacomo, analyst at XS.com.

The political decisions of the new American administration will be “determining for the future of crude oil,” predicts Mr. Di Giacomo, and not all of them are in the direction of a drop in prices.

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Donald Trump and the U.S. oil industry need “a higher oil price to significantly increase U.S. oil production over the next four years,” which he promised to do during his campaign, says Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB.

According to the analyst, this implies “that someone else in the market is stepping down to make way for American oil”, and Iran and Venezuela are Donald Trump’s likely targets.

Punitive measures against these two countries could lead to “the loss of a total volume of 1.7 million barrels” DNB analysts warned in a report last week.

Crude oil futures were already down slightly on Monday morning, due to the entry into force of the ceasefire in Gaza which “should reduce attacks on ships” by Yemen’s Houthis, according to John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have carried out attacks off the coast of Yemen against ships they consider linked to Israel, saying they are acting in solidarity with the Palestinians in the context of the war in the Gaza Strip.

These attacks disrupted traffic in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a maritime area essential for global trade, and in particular for the transport of oil from the Middle East.

Appeasement in the region thus contributes to slightly reducing the price of black gold.

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